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EM ASIA FX-China and capital control fears hurt rupiah, rupee

Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:03pm IST
 
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 * Rupiah falls 1 pct on renewed capital control jitters
 * Peso, ringgit fall as dollar rebounds against euro
 * Baht weaker after c.bank intervenes to cap its early rise
 * Indian rupee NDFs price in less appreciation
 By Kevin Yao
 SINGAPORE, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah and
Indian rupee slipped in spot and offshore markets on Thursday
on jitters of possible official steps to curb capital inflows
after Brazil's latest attempt to limit the rise of its
currency.
 Other Asian currencies also headed lower as the dollar
rebounded against the euro after a sell-off on Wednesday.
 Brazil took another step on Wednesday to try to contain the
appreciation of its currency, unveiling a 1.5 percent tax on
certain trades involving American Depositary Receipts issued by
Brazilian companies. [ID:nN18128104]
 Taiwan has banned foreigners from investing in time
deposits and Indonesia has talked of limiting foreign ownership
of central bank debt, raising concerns emerging markets might
impose a wave of capital controls.
 RUPEE
 Dollar/rupee non-deliverable forwards moved higher in line
with the spot market as fears of other Asian countries
following Brazil's lead and imposing capital controls on
foreign fund inflows weigh on sentiment.
 One-month NDFs INR1MNDFOR= were quoted at 46.52 per
dollar, compared to 46.20 on Wednesday. The spot rupee INR=IN
was also weaker at 46.47.
 "I think the NDFs are giving up a bit on the Asian
appreciation story due to the fears of the likelihood of
capital controls plus China also seems to have got through the
Obama visit without the exchange rate issue being raised," said
a senior trader at a private bank in Mumbai.
 "The onshore market was never a part of this speculation I
reckon, so it hasn't reacted much," he said.
 India has the tools to deal with an influx of foreign
capital inflows if they become disruptive, but they are not a
concern yet, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on
Wednesday. [ID:nBOM506984].
 "After Brazil last night, there are fears that others in
Asia might follow suit," another senior trader with a foreign
bank said.
 RUPIAH
 The rupiah IDR= fell just over 1 percent to 9,510 to the
dollar, even as the central bank was seen selling dollars to
support the local unit.
 In offshore NDFs, the rupiah fell across the curve against
the dollar as hedge funds and other investors took advantage of
the market jitters to take profits from its recent rally,
traders said.
 Three-month dollar/rupiah NDFs IDR3MNDFOR= jumped from
Wednesday's 9,485 to 9,625, implying a 1.2 percent rupiah fall
from the spot.
 "With the Brazil news and risk reversion, people got
spooked," said a NDF trader in Singapore.
 "BI (the central bank) is sporadically capping the
dollar/rupiah at so the move in the NDF market has slowed
down... 9,510 high was paid but seeing offers slowly coming
out," the trader added.
 Market fears over possible capital curbs by Indonesia have
eased after the central bank played down the threat but
investor sentiment was hurt by Brazil's move to curb capital
inflows, traders said.
 PESO
 The peso PHP= fell 0.3 percent to 46.92 per dollar, but
the weakness could be temporary as investors awaited fresh
capital inflows.
 "Stocks across Asia right now are mixed, with the major
bourses in the red. Commodities are likely to follow suit, and
a recovery for the dollar is in play," said a Manila-based
dealer.
 "Dollar/peso could nudge up towards 47.00-10 if the lack of
fresh news continues, but afterwards we're still expecting a
test towards low 46 levels when the remittance flows peak," the
dealer added.
 Three-month dollar/peso NDFs PHP3MNDFOR= edged up to
47.19, implying a 0.6 percent peso fall from the spot.
 "All tenors are moving to the right. This is normal in
squeeze times," said a NDF trader in Singapore.
 RINGGIT
 The ringgit MYR= fell about 0.4 percent against a broadly
firmer U.S. dollar to 3.3780.
 "Early dollar buying below 3.3700 caught the market short,
while the euro came under selling pressure, which weighed on
the British pound and Australian dollar," a Kuala Lumpur-based
dealer said.
 Traders expect the ringgit to range 3.36 to 3.39 on
Thursday and Friday provided euro stays in the 1.4850-1.500 per
dollar range.
 BAHT
 The baht THB= eased to 33.25 per dollar in listless
trade, pressured by the firm dollar. The dollar was supported
by weaker than expected U.S. housing starts data
[ID:nCAT004942], which played into the dollar's hands by
reducing risk appetite.
  Traders said the Bank of Thailand intervened to buy
dollars in early dealings when the baht was firmer. The central
bank has said it only intervenes to smooth out baht
fluctuations.
 "The latest weaker-than-expected U.S. housing starts data
hit risk asset appetite in favour of dollar. Baht should move
in the 33.16-33.22 range today," said a  Bangkok-based trader.
The Thai currency has risen 0.4 percent in the past week and
4.91 percent so far this year.
 CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
 Change on the day at 0547 GMT
 Currency    Latest bid   Previous day    Pct Move
 Japan yen        89.12          89.37       +0.28
 Sing dlr        1.3875         1.3838       -0.27
 Taiwan dlr      32.188         32.128       -0.19
 Korean won     1156.50        1153.00       -0.30
 Baht             33.18          33.17       -0.03
 Peso             46.90          46.78       -0.25
 Rupiah         9510.00        9380.00       -1.37
 Rupee            46.45          46.20       -0.53
 Ringgit         3.3820         3.3640       -0.53
 Yuan            6.8277         6.8270       -0.01
 Change so far in 2009
 Currency    Latest bid  End prev year    Pct Move
 Japan yen        89.12          90.60       +1.66
 Sing dlr        1.3875         1.4340       +3.35
 Taiwan dlr      32.188         32.860       +2.09
 Korean won     1156.50        1259.50       +8.91
 Baht             33.18          34.80       +4.88
 Peso             46.90          47.52       +1.33
 Rupiah         9510.00       11000.00      +15.67
 Rupee            46.45          48.71       +4.88
 Ringgit         3.3820         3.4500       +2.01
 Yuan            6.8277         6.8230       -0.07
 (Additional reporting by Vithoon Amorn in BANGKOK, Swati Bhat
in MUMBAI)

























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