Jobs may spark move in Apple shares on Monday

By Clare Baldwin

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A surprise appearance by Apple Inc Chief Executive Steve Jobs at the company's annual developer conference could boost its stock on Monday, but his absence might trigger a bigger move in the other direction.

The Wall Street Journal kicked off speculation of an early return by the ailing Jobs, who had said he would be out until the end of June. Blogs and other media jumped on the report that the CEO could appear at Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference in San Francisco on Monday.

Jobs, 54, the quintessential man in black, founded Apple, rescued it from mediocrity in the late 1990s, launched the iPod and the iPhone and is seen as its heart and soul.

Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek sees a rally of 1 to 5 percent in Apple's stock if Jobs makes an appearance, but no downside if he doesn't.

Global Equities Research senior analyst Trip Chowdhry said Apple's stock will likely remain high if Jobs appears, but could sell off as much as 10 percent if he doesn't, a scenario he finds more likely.

But the company's strong performance while Jobs has been recuperating indicates he is no longer crucial to the company's success, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall said.

Stock in the Cupertino-based company closed at $144.67, about 85 percent ahead of January's 52-week low of $78.20. But it was up less than 1 percent on Friday after news that Jobs might return early.

"It's not just about Steve Jobs," Marshall said. Investors are "very comfortable" with Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook as Apple's next CEO, he added.