Malaysian protest crackdown may delay poll plan

By Clarence Fernandez

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's recent dramatic crackdown on public protest could force the prime minister to delay plans for an early election next year, after the events embittered the opposition and soured the public mood.

In November, tens of thousands of people turned out for two of Malaysia's largest protests in a decade, dramatically highlighting their unhappiness over Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's glacial implementation of promised reforms.

Last week, when Abdullah jailed without trial five ethnic Indian activists behind one of the protests, he was acting in a political tradition of quickly stifling race-based disputes in a multiracial country, analysts said.

Polls are not due until 2009, but speculation has been rife that Abdullah plans to call a snap election early in 2008 in a move to foil opposition figure Anwar Ibrahim, who is barred by a corruption conviction from running for office until next April.

"I think there will be some sort of delay to the elections, which at this juncture are being discussed in March," said Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia specialist at Johns Hopkins University.

"The arrests are only part of the reason. The key additional factors are the impact of the protests within coalition parties and the public perception of Abdullah's inability to resolve issues through existing channels."

With a record majority and an efficient political machine, Abdullah's ruling coalition runs no danger of being unseated.

But analysts said the crackdown also makes it tougher for him to deliver on promises to fight corruption, reduce inequality and foster wider political engagement, by strengthening the hands of conservative opponents within the coalition that has ruled Malaysia since independence in 1957.