Inflation at 9 pct by end 2008/09 - RBI survey

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Inflation in India is expected to remain in double digits for most of the year and may fall to around 9 percent by March, a survey among professional forecasters conducted by the central bank showed.

The forecast for end 2008/09 is higher than the central bank's projection of 7 percent and forecasters surveyed see a 40 percent chance of inflation falling within 9-9.9 percent in 2008/09.

Data on Thursday showed the wholesale price index rose 11.98 percent in the 12 months to July 19, above the previous week's reading of 11.89 percent, and the highest since the current series became available in 1995.

The survey was the fourth of the series and was conducted in the June quarter and respondents were surveyed on growth, inflation, savings and other indicators. It was posted on the central bank's website on late Thursday www.rbi.org.in.

About 31 forecasters were surveyed out of which 20 participants responded and parts of this survey was used in the central bank's policy statement last week. Following are some of the highlights of the survey:

* Growth is expected to slow to 7.9 percent in 2008/09, a notch lower than the central bank's estimate of around 8 percent.

* Profit growth of the corporate sector is expected to slow to 16 percent, lower than 25 percent expected in the previous survey, reflecting the aggressive spate of monetary tightening in recent weeks by the central bank.

* Annual money supply growth is expected at 19.5 percent in 2008/09, above 19 percent in the previous survey as well as the central bank's projections of around 17 percent.

* The trade deficit is expected to widen to $126.2 billion in 2008/09 above a previous estimate of $115.5 billion and a 50 percent increase from $80.4 billion in 2007/08, reflecting a increasing oil import bill.