ANALYSIS - BJP gaining momentum

By Alistair Scrutton

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - After trailing for weeks, India's Hindu nationalist opposition may now be gaining momentum against a fumbling ruling Congress party-led coalition thanks to some savvy alliance building.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) alliance, which ruled India from 1998 to 2004 on a pro-business platform, was plagued by internal dissension, withdrawals and poor campaigning just a month ago, and polls gave Congress an advantage.

But on the eve of the last stage of the staggered month-long election, the BJP has won over more allies, showcasing them at a large rally in northern India last Sunday, in marked contrast with the squabbling inside the Congress-led coalition (UPA).

After initial organisational hiccups, the BJP has managed to unite and has boosted its campaign firepower with a media blitz. Potential allies have taken heart from internal surveys that show the party doing better than expected, BJP insiders say.

The two main national parties, Congress and the BJP, only won around a quarter of the votes each in the last 2004 general election, so their ability to secure coalitions with regional and caste-based parties will be key to forming a government.

"The indications on the ground is that it will be a hung parliament," said BJP top election strategist Sudheendra Kulkarni. "So everything will depend on the party's ability to maintain alliances -- and the UPA is in complete disarray."

In the last few weeks, smaller parties -- many motivated by political expediency -- have joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with the perception the Hindu nationalist party has a better chance of forming a government.

The regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) party decided to join the NDA in the swing state of Andhra Pradesh.