For stocks, escaping bear hinges on oil, GE

By Walker Simon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - It will be tough for Wall Street to shake off the bear market blues next week if the price of oil keeps rising and the earnings season kick-off from Alcoa and General Electric disappoints investors.

Earnings estimates for the second quarter have fallen steadily after several big U.S. companies, like United Parcel Service (UPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), rattled investors in recent weeks with profit warnings, blaming the sluggish economy and soaring oil prices.

Oil has become the biggest wild card for growth and corporate profits. It jumped to a record above $145 a barrel on Thursday, driven by tensions between Israel and Iran, before the long holiday weekend to mark U.S. Independence Day. The price of crude is up 50 percent so far this year.

On Friday, U.S. markets will be closed on July 4th for the Independence Day holiday.

Financial results from Alcoa Inc (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and GE (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will kick off the second-quarter earnings season next week. Aluminum company Alcoa, the first Dow component to report results, will release its quarterly numbers on Tuesday. GE, another Dow industrial and a bellwether for the U.S. economy, will report earnings on Friday. Aside from second-quarter results, investors are anxious to see the companies' forecasts for world economic growth and their own corporate sales prospects.

More clarity on the economic outlook may come from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. He is expected to speak twice, first at an FDIC mortgage lending forum on Tuesday and on Thursday, he will testify before on financial market regulation before the House Financial Services Committee.

But it's oil that will remain a top concern.

"The price of crude oil is on the top of everyone's list,"