CHICAGO Feb 23 A second straight month of
record low U.S. pork belly inventories in January will likely
intensify speculation about a potential national bacon shortage,
but analysts said more supply will soon be available.
In early February, the Ohio Pork Council stoked alarm by
publicizing that belly stocks were at their lowest in half a
century, and it registered a website at www.baconshortage.com.
While the group added that there was not an actual bacon
shortage, several media outlets published reports.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture data for January on pork
bellies, from which bacon is made, put total stocks at 14
million pounds. It was a record-low for the month and down 4
million pounds from the December record. The five-year average
is a 6.6 million-pound gain.
Industry analysts attributed low belly stocks to prolonged
demand for bacon as well as a decline in physical storage by
speculators after the demise of Chicago Mercantile Exchange
belly trading pit which they used to hedge product.
Fresh bellies, which are from recently butchered hogs and
not frozen like those held in inventories, are readily
available, at times amid record-high hog production. And lofty
wholesale belly prices may have deterred processors from storing
them in U.S. warehouses for later use.
Dan Vaught, a Doane Advisory Services economist, said pork
and bacon demand surged late last year. Some consumers, he said,
might have bought bacon and stored it in their own freezers
driven by shortage worries that may not materialize.
"Certainly the USDA isn't forecasting any shortage. So, it
is extremely unlikely that we'll have a shortage of bacon," said
He pointed to a most recent U.S. government hog report that
implied hog slaughter totals up 4 percent through the spring.
Furthermore, USDA data on Thursday forecast 2017 commercial pork
production up nearly 5 percent from 2016.
U.S. monthly retail data showed January bacon priced at
$5.18 per pound, an 8-cent rise from December but down 47 cents
from a year ago.
Robert Brown, an independent market analyst, said bacon
prices were difficult to predict and could be pushed upward by
demand and interest by processors in buying pork bellies to
replenish stocks if wholesale prices come down.
(Reporting By Theopolis Waters; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)