By David Adams and Stephanie Simon
MIAMI, June 22 He's the non-candidate they never
stop talking about.
Ever since Jeb Bush left the Florida governor's mansion in
2007 with favorable ratings after two terms, speculation has
swirled about his political future.
The chatter has only gotten louder this year amid the
Republican Party's "veepstakes" - despite Bush's repeated
insistence that he is not in the running.
Bush appeared to put the issue to rest in a recent series of
interviews with various media outlets in which he criticized the
direction of the Republican Party and said that both his father,
George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan would "have a hard time"
getting along with the party today.
When he said he supported a modest tax increase along with
spending cuts to help reduce the federal debt, Bush joked, "This
will prove I'm not running for anything." Former Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican presidential
nominee, and the party leadership oppose any and all tax hikes.
Comments like these have only fueled speculation that Bush
is positioning himself to run for president - in 2016. According
to this scenario, his breaking with the party on issues such as
taxes is meant to stake out a platform that will move it back to
the moderate center and away from more divisive social issues,
while also seeking more common ground on issues such as
education and immigration.
The best argument for doing that, of course, would be if
Romney, running on more conservative positions, fails to unseat
President Barack Obama this year.
"Jeb Bush is following a pattern we see with ambitious
presidential candidates," said Jamie Chandler, a political
scientist at Hunter College, New York. "Just like Romney did in
2004, he's raising his public profile and increasing his speech
activity now for a potential run in four years."
If Romney wins, Bush would be a likely cabinet candidate,
perhaps as education secretary, said Chandler. But any
presidential ambitions would have to wait until 2020. By then he
would be almost 68, just a year younger than Reagan in 1990, the
oldest U.S. president to be sworn into office.
Not everyone is convinced Bush has such a game plan. Some of
the people who know him best say he is not that calculating.
They say he is speaking out because he is deeply loyal to the
Republican Party and worried about the issues he holds dear.
"It's more about helping the cause than helping himself. He
will always call it the way he sees it," said Jorge
Arrizurietta, a top Republican fundraiser in Miami and a former
adviser to Jeb Bush. "I can't tell you that he's got a master
plan, but there is a broad consensus in the party that Jeb
should stay involved and consider a run at the right moment."
Bush declined to be interviewed for this article, citing a
busy schedule, including a speech on Thursday in Orlando to the
National Association of Latino Elected Officials where he
received a rapturous reception.
Speaking at the same event, Romney got a noticeably less
enthusiastic welcome, though he softened his stance on
immigration, appearing to borrow from Bush's advocacy for a more
compassionate position toward the nation's 11 million
A CONSERVATIVE LEADER ON EDUCATION
Bush's conservative record in government gives him more
"flexibility" to speak freely, said Larry Sabato, director of
the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "He's got
a record that's appealed to the base. That overrides any
apostasy on the campaign trail."
Bush secured his bona fides with social conservatives in
2003 with his controversial order to reinsert the feeding tube
of Terri Schiavo, a brain-injured woman who had been in a coma
for 15 years. The family was divided over whether to keep her
alive, but right-to-life activists pushed the matter all the way
to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Bush made his biggest mark as governor in education policy,
securing a number of reforms with a conservative slant. He
signed a measure giving public schools an annual grade based on
student test scores and rewarded them with state funds
He encouraged charter schools, which are publicly funded but
typically run by private corporations, and instituted a
statewide voucher program - later struck down by the state
Supreme Court - that let hundreds of students in failing public
schools enroll in private and religious schools at taxpayer
The state has posted strong growth in reading and math
scores, according to recent federal data, with most of the gains
coming during the Bush administration.
The website run by his Foundation for Excellence in
Education calls his education record as governor "perhaps the
greatest public policy success story of the past decade."
Yet a close look at that record suggests a key ingredient of
his program was one the party faithful might not be keen to
embrace: a huge increase in state spending on education.
Bush had the good luck to govern in the years before the
economic crisis and the home mortgage debacle devastated
Florida. During his administration, average state funding per
student rose from $5,000 in the 2000-01 school year to $7,126 in
the 2007-08 school year.
He spent tens of millions training teachers, sending reading
coaches to elementary schools and creating summer reading camps.
AT HOME IN MIAMI
Raised in Texas, Bush attended the prestigious Andover
boarding school in Massachusetts before he went to the
University of Texas at Austin, where he graduated with a degree
in Latin American Studies.
The large public university in Texas may have been a better
fit for Bush than an east coast Ivy League school, such as Yale,
where his father and older brother, George W. Bush, studied.
"Jeb doesn't feel as comfortable in that kind of New England
patrician environment," says Roberto Martinez, the former U.S.
attorney for Florida's southern district, who has known Bush
since their days at Andover.
Bush met his wife, Columba, while teaching English in Leon,
Mexico, and their three children were raised in a bilingual
Jeb was always regarded as the son most likely to carry the
Bush brand into the next generation. In 1994 he was running for
governor in Florida while brother George was running in Texas.
Their parents flew to Miami on election night, expecting to
celebrate Jeb's victory over Democrat Lawton Chiles. Jeb lost by
a narrow margin, and his parents had to dash to Austin to mark
George's upset of incumbent Governor Ann Richards.
By the time Jeb captured the Florida governorship in 1998
his brother was already eyeing a presidential run in 2000.
Friends say Jeb's attitude toward politics remains
ambivalent, and that he prefers to remain above the fray. In
2007 he was happy to leave behind the often petty politics of
Tallahassee and return to private business in Miami.
Before running for governor, Bush was involved in a number
of entrepreneurial ventures in South Florida. Since leaving
office he has dedicated himself to rebuilding his family
finances, going into the real estate business with his son, Jeb
Jr. He also has lucrative directorships on several corporate
boards, including Tenet Healthcare, and has immersed himself in
the two areas of policy he cares most about: education and
"Jeb wants to be a leader on the big issues of the day ...
Whether he's influencing the 2012 debate or the 2016 debate, or
even 2020, that's not the question," said Chuck Cobb, a close
friend of the Bush family and former under secretary of commerce
in the Reagan administration. "Does Jeb want to be a leader?
Yes. Does Jeb have to be the leader of the United States to do
that? I think not."
HAVE ISSUES, WILL TRAVEL
His education work gives Bush a platform to proselytize
fellow Republican lawmakers and governors. He has been to a
dozen states over the past 15 months to promote the "Florida
formula," in the process establishing a network that would serve
him well in a national campaign.
Bush "has turned into a kind of Johnny Appleseed of
education reform, carrying ideas around the country and planting
them wherever he can," said Chester Finn Jr., an education
policy analyst and president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute,
an education think tank in Washington.
One of those ideas, which resonates with the party base, is
to aggressively promote the idea that teachers unions are
impediments to reform.
Education could be a way for Bush to build political
coalitions, since the cause of improving America's schools
crosses party lines.
Bush has praised current Education Secretary Arne Duncan for
pushing reforms including more charter schools and more rigorous
teacher evaluations. President Obama heaped praise on Bush
during a joint appearance at a Miami high school last spring.
Lately, Bush has been heavily promoting virtual schools and
online courses, which can save states money but have a mixed
track record on student achievement.
Bush's foundation, which has made online learning a major
focus of its work, gets much of its funding from companies and
philanthropies tied to companies that would profit from expanded
virtual schooling. Backers include online education companies
Apex Learning, GlobalScholar and K12 Inc, and technology
companies such as Apple, Intel and Microsoft
That doesn't sit well with Bush's critics.
"So much money is spent on virtual schools that make his
friends wealthy, while at the same time schools are having to
eliminate art, music, P.E., guidance counselors, nurses, all in
order to pay for all the tests" called for under Bush's
education reform agenda, said Andy Ford, president of the
Florida Education Association, a teachers union.
Bush's passion for immigration reform might also get him in
"It would be incredibly stupid over the long haul to ignore
the burgeoning Hispanic vote," he told the Hispanic Leadership
Network conference in Miami last year, no ting that failure to
take Hispanics more into account was hurting the party.
Yet his support for educational opportunities for
undocumented students could be a liability in some primary
Winning the party's nomination for president depends on
"voters in primary states," says veteran Miami congresswoman
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American Republican who hired Jeb
Bush as her campaign manager for her first congressional bid in
1989. "There's no big structure that will anoint anyone. Romney
had to win it fair and square in every primary, and Jeb will
have to win it that way too."
Even though they have their differences, Bush has earned the
respect of the Tea Party. "Jeb Bush is a very solid conservative
and a likable guy. Many people like me wish he was president,"
says Florida Tea Party Chairman Everett Wilkinson, a Palm Beach
County political consultant.
Some Democrats also admit to a sneaking regard for him. "I
think he is the most dangerous Republican candidate," says
Freddy Balsera, a public relations consultant in Miami and
Hispanic adviser to the Obama campaign. "He's a real
conservative who understands Latino voters better than even many
Latino elected officials," he added.
Hispanic voters were deeply opposed to the war in Iraq and
blame George W. Bush for the recession. But by 2016 that may be
Certainly, Jeb's family remains proud of the Bush brand. His
granddaughter, born last year, was named Georgia H.W. Bush.
"I know that there's Bush fatigue right now, but I think Jeb
can overcome that," says Ros-Lehtinen. "I hope that he runs for
president. I think that's where he belongs."