* Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 180,000 in March
* Unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.7 percent
* Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2 percent
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, April 7 U.S. job growth likely
slowed in March after unseasonably mild weather boosted hiring
over the prior two months, but the pace of gains should
underscore the economy's strength despite a recent slowdown in
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 180,000 jobs last
month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, near 2016's
187,000 monthly average job growth. The unemployment rate is
forecast to be unchanged at 4.7 percent.
The Labor Department will release its closely watched
employment report on Friday. Readings in line with expectations
would reinforce views the economy's fundamentals remain solid
despite gross domestic product appearing to have slowed to
around a 1.0 percent annualized growth pace in the first quarter
after rising at a 2.1 percent rate in the final three months of
The economy enjoyed job gains in excess of 230,000 in
January and February as unusually warm temperatures pulled
forward hiring in weather-sensitive sectors like construction,
leisure and hospitality. Economists are expecting a payback
after temperatures dropped in March and a storm lashed the
"We will also see some still-positive, but sort of across-
the-board lower paces of hiring in March as compared to the
previous months," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells
Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. "While
first-quarter GDP looks weak, when you look at the details,
underlying domestic demand is fairly strong."
But payrolls could surprise in either direction. A survey on
Wednesday showed a measure of services sector employment falling
to a seven-month low in March. Another report, however, showed
private payrolls surged by 263,000 jobs.
The economy needs to create 75,000 to 100,000 jobs per month
to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The labor
market is expected to hit full employment this year, which could
drive faster wage growth.
Average hourly earnings are seen increasing 0.2 percent in
March, which would keep the year-on-year increase at 2.8
percent. Given rising inflation, economists say solid job gains
and gradual wage increases would leave the Federal Reserve on
course to raise interest rates again in June.
The U.S. central bank lifted its overnight interest rate by
a quarter of a percentage point in March and has forecast two
more hikes this year.
STEADY PARTICIPATION RATE
"A report touting more jobs with higher wages will likely
keep the Fed on track for two more rate hikes this year and also
addressing their sizable balance sheet," said Beth Ann Bovino,
U.S. chief economist for S&P Global Ratings in New York.
The Fed has said it would look at how to reduce its
portfolio of bond holdings later this year.
The labor force participation rate, or the share of
working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a
job, probably held at an 11-month high of 63 percent in March.
Economists attribute some of the improvement in the
participation rate to President Donald Trump's electoral victory
last November, which might have caused some unemployed Americans
to believe their job prospects would improve. Trump has pledged
to pursue pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation.
"But there appears to be limited room for the resulting
cyclical rebound in labor force participation to continue, as
dropout rates of unemployed workers and the number of remaining
discouraged workers have fallen to not far from pre-recession
levels," said Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley in
Little change was expected in the employment-to-population
ratio, which hit an eight-year high of 60 percent in February.
Growth in construction payrolls, which averaged 49,000 in
January and February, well above 2016's monthly average of
12,900, likely slowed last month. That would account for most of
the anticipated moderation in payroll growth.
Manufacturing employment probably increased further after
posting the largest job gains in 3-1/2 years in February, as
rising oil prices fuel demand for machinery.
Retail payrolls are expected to rebound after declining by
the most since December 2012. Retailers including J.C. Penney Co
Inc and Macy's Inc have announced thousands of
layoffs as they shift toward online sales and scale back on
Government payrolls likely fell amid a freeze on the hiring
of civilian workers.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)