NEW YORK Oct 15 U.S. winter heating fuel
stockpiles remain well above year-ago levels, but the early
arrival of cold temperatures in some regions of the United States
have pushed oil prices higher this week.
Below is a sampling of recent winter outlooks from government
and private forecasters.
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
El Nino phenomenon to be dominant factor in U.S. weather.
In December through February, warmer-than-average temperatures
will prevail across much of the Western and Central states, with
below average temperatures in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
The forecast for the Northeast, the world's largest heating
oil market, will have equal chances of above-normal, near-normal,
or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. [nN15304234]
JOE BASTARDI, CHIEF HURRICANE AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTER,
ACCUWEATHER, STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA:
Winter to be stormier, colder than recent years, with a
weakening El Nino pattern.
The regions from southern New England through the Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas, to be hit hardest by
cold and snowy weather. Cold to hit major cities in the South,
including Atlanta and Charlotte.
Midwest and central Plains could get below normal snowfall.
A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern expected from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. [ID:nN14249032]
JIM ROUILLER, METEOROLOGIST, PLANALYTICS INC, WAYNE,
An early and cold start to winter and a milder finish, with
the potential for early snowpack in Canada to intensify the cold
air sweeping into the United States.
Into January, the jet stream associated with El Nino will make
the South the dominant player in the U.S. weather pattern. The
northern half of the country will trend milder, while the desert
Southwest eastward will trend colder than normal and stormier.
In January the North Atlantic Oscillation will be negative,
which can mean periodic shots of very cold air and establish a
storm trend, which means a higher snowstorm threat.
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will average out close to
normal, but there will be radical temperature swings, with a few
days of extreme cold followed by milder air.
Upper-Midwest will have a cold start characterized by some
early winter cold shots, but it will head milder into January.
CRAIG SOLBERG, METEOROLOGIST AND SENIOR WEATHER ANALYST,
FORECAST TRADING, DES MOINES, IOWA:
Below-normal temperatures expected for the majority of the
nation, with the highest probability of below-normal readings in
Near-normal or above-normal readings are expected in
northern-tier states as far east as Lake Michigan, with the
highest probability of above-normal readings across northern
Montana into northern North Dakota.
DTN METEORLOGIX, WOBURN, MASSACHUSETTS:
El Nino should remain in place through the winter season, in
contrast to the previous two winters, when La Nina conditions
prevailed in the Pacific Ocean.
Mild and drier weather that occurred across the southern U.S.
will switch toward a cooler and wetter pattern this year. In
contrast, the cold and snowy conditions that frequented the
Northwest and north central states will turn milder and less snowy
for the 2009-10 season.
The threat for several strong East Coast storms will be back
this year after a recent quieter period.
TRAVIS HARTMAN, ENERGY WEATHER MANAGER, EARTHSAT, ROCKVILLE,
The main driver for the winter will be a moderate strength El
Nino in the central tropical Pacific. With that will be a
propensity for warmer-than-normal temperatures --
normal being the 30-year normal from 1971 to 2000 -- across the
northern U.S. tier, specifically the Northern Plains, the Midwest
and the Great Lakes region.
WSI CORP, BILLERICA, MASSACHUSETTS:
November will cooler than normal in all areas except the
This relatively cool forecast, combined with colder seasonal
temperatures, will boost demand significantly from October's
depressed shoulder-month levels.
The warmer-than-normal weather in the West will reduce
regional seasonal heating demand slightly. However, the effects of
the cooler weather in the East will outweigh the effects in the
West. On balance, November should be bullish from a
(Reporting by New York Energy Desk)