Tension in Egypt clouds outlook for succession

By Alaa Shahine

CAIRO (Reuters) - Social tensions in Egypt over the past year have eroded overwhelming expectations that Gamal Mubarak will succeed his father President Hosni Mubarak at the helm of the most populous Arab country, analysts say.

An unprecedented wave of labour strikes and public anger over high prices and poor wages, which last month led to deadly riots, may eventually drive the main pillars of the ruling elite, such as the army, to look into other scenarios.

"Why would they (the ruling establishment) support Gamal Mubarak and risk confronting a disenchanted public opinion with a candidate who does not enjoy unanimity?" said Mustapha al-Sayyed, political science professor at Cairo University.

"The security challenge is huge and this succession could add a complicating issue to an already complicated situation."

While the analysts did not come up with any alternative candidates, they did rule out the possibility that opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood could end up seizing power, saying they did not have enough public support.

"It will be from within the regime, not the Brotherhood," political analyst Amr El-Choubaki told Reuters.

The next presidential election is expected by 2011 and President Mubarak, 80, is not expected to seek another term.

Mubarak has never appointed a vice president and his 44-year-old son has denied any presidential ambitions.