Japanese seen ahead in ElBaradei succession race

By Mark Heinrich

VIENNA (Reuters) - A senior Japanese diplomat has the edge over a South African rival in the contest to become the new head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, diplomats say.

But Japan's Yukiya Amano cannot count on the required two-thirds majority to prevail over South Africa's Abdul Minty and succeed Mohamed ElBaradei as director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the diplomats said.

Algeria, current chairman of the IAEA's Board of Governors, will start consultations shortly to assess whether either candidate could win, diplomats said.

If not, the nomination process -- which closed on Dec. 31 -- could be reopened in the spring to attract more candidates. A new chief must be chosen at the latest by the September annual meeting of all 145 IAEA member states, who must rubber-stamp it.

ElBaradei, 66, an Egyptian and IAEA head since 1997, intends to leave office after his third term expires in November.

Unresolved IAEA investigations into allegations of covert nuclear arms work in Iran and Syria during ElBaradei's tenure, and his public disputes with the United States over approach, have turned the IAEA directorship into a political hot potato.

Amano, 62, and Minty, 69, both eminent non-proliferation diplomats and negotiators who serve as their nation's ambassador to the IAEA, are lobbying hard internationally for the agency helm and claim sufficient support to win.

Amano is broadly backed by Western countries. Japan wields clout at the IAEA as the agency's second largest financier after Washington. Japan is also a leader in advancing uses of peaceful nuclear energy, the IAEA's other main brief.