Tribes could be bin Laden's downfall-ex-spy

By William Maclean

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden will probably be killed or captured when some "brave souls" in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area decide to betray him, a former senior CIA official said on Thursday.

Henry Crumpton, who led the CIA's operations in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks, said local chiefs sheltering the militant leader were likely to abandon him one day due to disenchantment with his agenda and its perceived failure to bring a better life.

"I think Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed, and that mostly likely will be because of a decision by local authorities," said Crumpton, now a private security consultant.

"Local tribal authorities I believe either will generate the intelligence, and/or will participate directly in his demise," he said on the sidelines of a conference held by the EastWest Institute global security think tank.

The al Qaeda leader has been hiding out since the Sept. 11 attacks against U.S. cities. U.S. officials believe he is probably not far from his last reported whereabouts, the mountains of Tora Bora, Afghanistan, near the Pakistan border.

He has defied all efforts to find him despite a $25 million U.S. reward offer.

The possibility of betrayal has been dismissed at times by commentators who say Pashtuns, whose lands straddle both sides of the border between the two countries, live to a code of honour that demands unfailing hospitality towards guests.

But Crumpton said bin Laden would eventually become vulnerable to disappointment among his hosts at his perceived failure to bring concrete improvements in daily life.