SCENARIOS - Clinton visit unlikely to change North Korea

By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL (Reuters) - The United States is playing down talk of a breakthrough with Pyongyang after former U.S. President Bill Clinton flew to North Korea this week to win the release of two jailed American journalists.

Their release follows months of tension with North Korea, which has alarmed the region with a nuclear test, ballistic missile launches and threats to attack South Korea, raising concerns it could plunge the economies of North Asia into turmoil.

Here are scenarios about what may come next with North Korea:

A MORE DIPLOMATIC NORTH KOREA, BRIEFLY

North Korea has used military threats for years to squeeze concessions out of regional powers and it is not likely to alter its time-tested strategy over the long run. It may try diplomacy in the next few months to seek rewards that could benefit its broken economy, which has been hit by U.N. sanctions imposed for its May 25 nuclear test and long-range missile launch earlier this year.

Most analysts do not see North Korea ever giving up its nuclear arms programme, which is the state's biggest card and prime symbol of leader Kim Jong-il's "military-first" strategy.