ANALYSIS - Has Thaksin's Cambodian stunt backfired?

By Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thaksin Shinawatra's provocative trip to neighbouring Cambodia last week has stirred up trouble back home in Thailand, but by triggering a nationalist row, the fugitive ex-premier may get more than he bargained for.

Polls show Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's popularity has climbed as a result of his measured response to Thaksin's taunts and his handling of Cambodia's refusal to extradite him to serve a two-year prison sentence for graft.

Some believe the wily billionaire may have badly miscalculated by getting into bed with old foe Cambodia, which could alienate some of his more moderate supporters.

"There's been no gain for Thaksin's popularity and by playing up this situation, this will make him unpopular, even among his supporters," said Thai political scientist Somjai Phagaphasvivat.

"The only way it would have worked is if Abhisit had overreacted, but he's responded carefully and logically and he will become more popular at Thaksin's expense."

The outrage at Thaksin's alliance with Cambodian premier Hun Sen and his meetings in Cambodia with political allies has come mostly from the anti-Thaksin media and the influential "yellow shirts", who staged a mass rally on Sunday to show their contempt, some even calling for the beheading of his henchmen.

Thaksin appears to have gained little from the stage-managed visit to Cambodia although it may be too soon to tell what effect it will have on his support base among the rural poor in the vote-rich north and northeast.

However, his ardent "red shirt" supporters have already declared they will continue to back him and plan to hold their first prolonged rally since April, when protests snowballed into Thailand's worst violence in 17 years.