MUMBAI/NEW DELHI India will receive normal rainfall over the 2016 monsoon season, not surplus as previously expected, with the chances of a La Nina weather pattern emerging over the period seen as unlikely, three senior officials at state-run weather department said.
"Monsoon has a big linkage effect on not only rural income but overall growth and inflation and if we have another sub-par monsoon, then contribution of farm sector to GDP will be near zero."
GAURAV KAPUR, Senior Economist Royal Bank of Scotland, Mumbai
"Fertiliser consumption will improve in 2016/17 season, especially due to better demand for winter-sown crops like wheat. Imports of fertilisers will not rise despite good demand as we have ample inventory. The drought had squeezed sales last year."
U.S. AWASTHI, Managing Director IFFCO, New Delhi
"I was expecting a lower monsoon forecast. However, this is just the first estimate and we need to see the second estimate, which will be closer to the monsoon time, for clarity on its impact on growth and inflation. I don't expect any change in RBI's policy stance based on this monsoon forecast as they have just lowered the interest rates and will wait the second round of forecast."
INDRANIL PAN, Chief Economist IDFC Bank Ltd, Mumbai