Dec. 21 - Nomura Senior Political Analyst Alastair Newton tells us what’s keeping him awake at night heading into the new year.
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I'm honest thing you know I'm facing at least I'm honest and alerts personal based on the yeah. We're very optimistic about China next do we expect growth to better than 8% for the first two quarters of the year. But as inflation picks in towards the middle of the year we expect to see it creeping back up towards 5%. Monetary tightening will almost certainly means the consequence of that and as a result. We would expect to see growth slowing towards 7% -- Q3 and Q4 defensively. A soft landing being submitted by. A new machine which. Let's remember we'll still be molesting transition despite the fact that the formal process will be completed in March so. Optimistic about China next shift a little more concerned about prospects in the -- humans. Outside of risk model is still sweating as only one in three probability of a hard landing in the next three years. But it may be that as an internal stresses in China economic. Demographic social and indeed increasingly political. Begin to buildup in the and you hit it may be -- -- -- That problem but it's going up somewhat but not an event next yeah. China Japan and paradigm is insisting on what to expect to see. Some efforts to improve bilateral relations. Over the course of the next few months let's keep in mind actions they when he was first elected prime minister 2006. Its first overseas visits were to sell basic. -- enjoy that period relations which has not been great showing the preceding -- in Iraq against improved somewhat. I think this -- -- I will probably make the same effort to get to try and improve relations and it's not just China of course our -- such sanctions. With Korea as well. But we all working in a different environment now there is no question of them and -- Washington sentiment in Japan. -- -- -- -- There is a righteous meaning in Japanese politics tonight and that was excellent so is it. China I expect she shouldn't bring. Not to pursue a more assists you've reached -- policy ebitda should tell us about. So we may see the consumer boycotts against Americans are beginning to -- with the he executes. We just in the most recent night Japanese exports to China. Down the game you don't hear enough of them about submitting a serious impact and certainly investors an indication that. It's amazing perhaps is -- -- -- -- the -- -- -- beginning acute food but a bumpy ride ahead. Guys back from what I think -- lived with him is going to be alone so them down. -- -- -- The North Korean rocket launch earlier this month was. A signal that things but it wasn't defined events but it was an event which probably was the site. Like knowledge into your children domestic audience. Solid date its grip on power nevertheless it did on the life experience that remains a very different. Going into the despite the pledges all both candidates -- presidential election to. What North Korea it. I would expect to see very little if any progress. It's national warranty bilateral negotiations. With the north Koreans like to -- the system. For Barack Obama I don't think it's gonna be my priority. Tokyo and the Chinese will continue to find themselves struggling to keep North Korea more or less under control what ignored. North Korea is it's horrible incident through -- if you like fear -- -- handled -- you. But the green and went home next year.
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