Reuters - Video

Edition: US | UK | IN | CN | JP

video Video

Week ahead: politics tops the risk list, again

Sunday, November 20, 2016 - 01:45

Markets ready for the UK Autumn Statement economic outlook - the first since the Brexit vote - and look for more signs of how Italy's key constitutional referendum might turn out. But again, sentiment is likely to be dominated by the fallout from the US election. David Pollard reports.

▲ Hide Transcript

View Transcript

Markets are still going through contortions as they adjust to a post-Brexit, post-Trump, 'post-truth' world. Political risk now outstripping debt as the euro zone's main worry. The same might be said of the UK - where finance minister Philip Hammond gives his first economic outlook since the June referendum to leave the EU. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CIBC, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, JEREMY STRETCH, SAYING: "The interesting point is going to be how much fiscal easing can or will the Chancellor look to introduce to try and alleviate some of those Brexit-related headwinds which are clearly going to weigh on the growth outlooks." Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi also in the sight lines ... He may be under pressure to resign if he loses a key referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th. Opinion polls already show a clear lead for a campaign to reject his proposed changes. In the meantime, Italian bond yields have been surging. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CIBC, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, JEREMY STRETCH, SAYING: "Investors are starting to move aside from Italian assets and/or potentially from the euro as well, and that's probably going to remain the case into early December until we get the results of that referendum." If Europe's incumbents are in the frame, in the US it's the next wave. The Donald's New York HQ a revolving door of possible candidates for a new cabinet. The almost dead cert of a Fed rate hike in December a mere sideshow. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CIBC, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, JEREMY STRETCH, SAYING: "All roads lead back to if not the White House perhaps Trump Tower and that's very much where the markets are taking their cue from in the current environment." On the data front, Germany's IFO will give the latest reading on business morale. And the flash PMI readings are scheduled for the euro zone. Economists with fingers crossed they'll show an economy withstanding the forces of change, even if its politicians can't.

Press CTRL+C (Windows), CMD+C (Mac), or long-press the URL below on your mobile device to copy the code

Week ahead: politics tops the risk list, again

Sunday, November 20, 2016 - 01:45