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Trump's first 100 days: the analysts' view

Sunday, January 22, 2017 - 01:40

As the US moves from a 'post-truth' election to post-Trump inauguration, markets ponder an uncertain future for the world economy. Ivor Bennett canvasses analysts on what they expect to emerge from the new president's first months in office.

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The focus may be here, but the worries are here. China and markets bracing for a trade war. (SOUNDBITE) (English) PANMURE GORDON CHIEF ECONOMIST, SIMON FRENCH, SAYING: "I think accusations of currency manipulation and what will be the retaliation from the Chinese authorities. I think that will dominate the first 100 days." (SOUNDBITE) (English) HEAD OF CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT, 7IM, JUSTIN URQUHART STEWART, SAYING: "What impact on the dollar for that one? Well that's bad for trade, now therefore I suspect that'll be bad for the dollar as well." Another worry, a war of words. The auto, defence and pharmaceutical sectors Turmp's recent Twitter targets. (SOUNDBITE) (English) MICHAEL HEWSON, MARKET ANALYST, CMC MARKETS, SAYING: "He has proven already to be a bit of a loose cannon when it comes to his Twitter account and aiming pot-shots at various sectors within the global economy." Substantial spending was another campaign battle-cry. It built markets up - some feel they're ready for a fall. (SOUNDBITE) (English) HEAD OF CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT, 7IM, JUSTIN URQUHART STEWART, SAYING: "Unless he can deliver on that with true policies, not only does that froth get blown away, but actually some of those gains will actually reduce quite quickly as well." And even if he does deliver, there'll be other pressures too. (SOUNDBITE) (English) BGC PARTNERS MARKET STRATEGIST, MIKE INGRAM, SAYING: "If we were to see say US 10-year rates move up decisively towards the 3 percent level, then that has the potential for having quite disruptive effects on markets, on the global rate environment." But for others, the bulls are here to stay. (SOUNDBITE) (English) CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CCLA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, JAMES BEVAN, SAYING: "For sure, we may have periodic downturns, panic attacks, from which we can have further progress. But until we see real signs that the US economy is heading for recession, I think this bull market has further to go." Trump almost certainly does have further to go. 100 days just a fraction of four years.

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Trump's first 100 days: the analysts' view

Sunday, January 22, 2017 - 01:40