June 26, 2017 / 9:01 AM / 7 months ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/TAIPEI/SINGAPORE, June 26 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年6月22日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1025484">Fitch: China Shadow Banking Crackdown Shows Initial Results 初步跡象顯示,中國金融行業近期加強監管實施力度正在為影子銀行信貸增長降溫。惠譽評級表示,現時政府致力於遏制金融領域風險,如果在中期內保持這一勢頭,將對整個銀行系 統的穩定性更有利。 然而,一旦經濟增長放緩速度超出政府願意承受的幅度,政府是否還會繼續致力於遏制金融領域風險仍有待觀察。鑒於可能存在政策失誤的可能性(例如可能觸發信貸緊縮),預期政 府將謹慎行事。 最新的社會融資規模數據顯示,部分信貸重新遷移回到銀行的資產負債表上,這與2016年下半年的趨勢正相反。今年五月,銀行貸款持續增長,而同時非貸款類社會融資規模減少 (參見下圖)。拉低非貸款類社會融資規模的主要原因是企業債券發行量的降低,其反映出市場流動性的減弱和銀行融資成本的升高,這削弱了銀行進行企業債券和其他非貸款類金融 產品投資的意願。委託貸款和承兌匯票同時在今年五月有所降低。 <iframe allowfullscreen src="//e.infogram.com/crackdown_has_cooled_non_loan_financing?src=embed" title="Crackdown on Non-Loan Financing" width="550" height="647" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"> 儘管如此,社會融資規模的月度變化往往波動性較大。以往監管的收緊導致2014年7月和2016年5月的月度非銀行社會融資規模下降,但這兩次的收緊之後則立即出現迅速反 彈。此外,社會融資規模存量總體的同比增長保持強勁,甚至在4月和5月有小幅上升。新的政策立場將在信貸和經濟增長快速放緩之時接受真正的考驗。同時,政府也不太可能容忍 企業債券發行量進一步放緩,因為這與發展中國資本市場的長期目標相悖。 努力遏制金融風險的一個潛在風險是信貸緊縮。非貸款類活動放緩已使銀行間債券市場收緊,且導致流動性壓力加劇。2017年5月的平均銀行同業拆借利率為2.88%,較20 17年4月高23個基點,較2016年5月高78個基點。存款增長也已減弱,5月M2的同比增速在過去30多年內首次跌破10%。 據地方媒體報導稱,銀監會將放鬆對銀行開展自查業務在時間上的要求,雖然這並不代表監管上會出現重大變化, 但這意味著政府在政策執行方面至少更具靈活性。政府可能已經預料到,原定於6月12日的截止日期將會加劇季節性的流動性緊張。 大型銀行已從流動性緊縮中受益,因為他們是中型銀行的凈流動性提供者,惠譽預計其凈息差將會有所提高。同時,大型銀行受加強監管實施的影響會相對較小,因為其影子銀行活動 的風險敞口較低,且存款吸收能力較強。 與此相比,對銀行間市場和影子銀行活動依賴程度較高的小型銀行將面臨融資成本增加和遷回表外資產對資本的壓力。大部分銀行在去年減少了股息派發,惠譽預計銀行分紅比例將持 續保持較低的水平。數家銀行已計劃發行新股,其中部分是為了支持表內資產的增長。 聯繫人: Grace Wu(胡月明) 高級董事 金融機構 +852 2263 9919 惠譽國際評級有限公司 香港中環德輔道中68號 萬宜大廈19樓 Katie Chen(陳冠如) 董事 金融機構 +886 2 8175 7614 Dan Martin 高級分析師 惠譽快訊 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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