July 17, 2017 / 7:50 AM / 6 months ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: China New Energy Vehicle Blue Book - Government Policy Drives Market Development here SHANGHAI, July 17 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年7月16日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1026549">Fitch: China New Energy Vehicle Sales to Rise Rapidly Despite Reduced Subsidies 惠譽評級認為,中國的新能源汽車市場將在強有力的政策支持下穩步擴張,以實現2020年年銷量從2016年的50.7萬輛增至200萬輛的目標——這些政策包括消費者激勵 措施、燃油車限牌政策以及公共領域的大規模推廣計劃等。然而,中長期市場發展將取決於電池技術的改進和充電基礎設施的建設。 惠譽預計,中國的乘用車電動化比例將在2016年1.4%的基礎上穩步提升。在對燃油車實行限牌措施的一二線城市中,電動車零售需求將不斷增長。2016年,限牌城市的電 動車銷量約占總銷量的75%。同時隨著國家對低速電動車的監管收緊以及廉價低端電動車的供應增加,三四線城市的電動車需求也會有所提升。由於沿海經濟發達地區有更充裕的地 方政府補貼資金和更發達的充電基礎設施,這些地區貢獻了過去絕大多數的中國新能源汽車銷量。 由於慷慨的政府補貼刺激了消費者需求和新能源汽車生產,中國的新能源汽車銷量在2013年至2015年間暴增18倍以上。但是在政府開始打擊新能源騙補之後,2016年新 能源汽車銷量同比增速銳減至約50%。政府重新修訂了2017-2020年新能源汽車補貼政策,其中規定了階段性補貼退坡辦法,提高了技術門檻,並延長了補貼申領周期。惠 譽預計,廠商將下調含補貼的新能源汽車售價,以承擔部分由補貼減少造成的消費者損失。鑒於一些新能源汽車(尤其是電動客車)良好的補貼後盈利能力,以及未來通過規模經濟和 電池技術改進可能節省的成本,廠商有足夠的價格下調空間。 惠譽預計,到2019年,中國製造的電動車車型將不止翻倍,市場競爭更加激烈。本土和外國汽車製造商需要生產新能源汽車以達到中國監管機構嚴格的燃油經濟性目標;並且從2 018或2019年起,乘用車廠商還必須滿足新能源汽車積分要求,以避免被罰款。前十大本土製造商約占2016年中國電動車銷量的96%以上。中外合資品牌仍然落後,但將 在未來五年內增加新能源汽車投資。 中國是全球最大的新能源汽車市場,約占2016年全球電動車銷量的45%和幾乎全部的電動客車銷量。按2015年銷量計算,深圳的比亞迪汽車有限公司取代了加利福尼亞州的 特斯拉成為全球最大的電動車製造商。2016年銷量排名全球前20的電動車廠商中,有9個是中國電動車品牌。 完整報告《中國新能源汽車藍皮書——政府政策推動市場發展》是最新一期的中國研究系列報告。該系列研究報告旨在對中國企業部門的關鍵信用狀況展開全面而深入的研究。完整報 告請參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com或點擊本新聞稿上方的鏈接。 聯繫人: Jing Yang(楊菁) 聯席董事 +86 21 5097 3017 惠譽(北京)信用評級有限公司上海分公司 中國上海市浦東新區陸家嘴環路479號 上海中心大廈34層3401室 Ying Wang(王穎) 高級董事 +86 21 5097 3010 Jenny Huang(黃筱婷) 董事 +86 21 5097 3101 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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