September 21, 2017 / 6:43 AM / 5 months ago

惠誉将中国人寿的发行人违约评级下调至‘A’; 确认保险公司财务实力评级为‘A+’

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG, September 21 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年9月20日发布于:<a href="">Fitch Downgrades China Life's IDR to 'A'; Affirms 'A+' IFS Rating 惠誉评级已将中国人寿保险股份有限公司(中国人寿)的长期发行人违约评级从‘A+’ 下调至 ‘A’,确认公司的保险公司财务实力评级为‘A+’,展望稳定。惠誉同时确认了中国人寿的12.8亿美元、票息率4%、2075年到期的次级债券(该债券可能展期)的评级 为‘A-’。 中国人寿发行人违约评级的下调反映公司本身因为风险资产曝险明显增加而减弱的个别信用实力。 惠誉目前评估中国人寿个别的保险公司财务实力评级从‘AA-’ 降至 ‘A+’ 。最终的保险公司财务实力评级因此保持不变为‘A+’。 债务评级比中国人寿的发行人违约评级低一个子级,反映出惠誉预计一旦发生违约,回收率前景将低于平均水平。鉴于未来可能有级别更低的债券,惠誉重新对上述票据进行了评估, 视为次级债。惠誉认为不履约风险较低,没有为此对评级作出调整,因为利息递延是由发行人自行裁量的。 在中国风险导向偿付能力体系(偿二代)下,上述票据被分类为核心二级资本工具。如果发生清盘,投保人、一般债权人和该发行人的任何补充资本持有人的债权将优先于上述票据的 债权,并且该票据债权将优先于所有持有该发行人的任何低级别债务。 关键评级驱动因素 中国人寿的评级反映出其强大的业务规模、良好的分销能力以及稳健的风险资本金水平。公司显着的股权投资和风险主要集中在中国,当地寿险市场竞争激烈,上述优势受到此类因素 的制约。 中国人寿仍然是中国最大的寿险公司,从2017年上半年总保费来看,公司的市场份额为19.4%。公司的首年期交保费持续增长(同比增长10.8%),并且积极拓展盈利更 好的长期期交保费产品,使得公司2017年前6个月的新业务价值同比快速增长31.7%。2017上半年末,公司的内含价值已从2016年末的6,521亿人民币稳步增长 至6,975亿人民币。 按照惠誉的Prism模型计算,中国人寿的资本金水平因为风险资产(主要是股权)的增加而减弱。2017上半年末,公司的Prism模型得分从2015年末的“极为良好” 降至“良好”。于2016至2017上半年赎回580亿人民币次级债亦减弱中国人寿的资本金水平,但是,截至2017上半年末,公司的财务杠杆率因此下降至4%(2015 年末为18%)。在偿二代下,核心和综合偿付能力充足率分别为276%和280%,远高于分别为50%和100%的监管规定要求。 截至2017上半年末,公司的股权投资(包括上市和非上市股票、股权相关基金及私募和长期股权)占总投资的比例从2015年底的15%上升至20%左右。该投资为资产负债 表资本金的1.7倍,这意味着公司的资本金水平更容易受到股市波动和潜在的减值损失的影响。2016年中国人寿收购了一些大额的单一公司股份,截至2017上半年末,长期 股权投资总额约为资本金的41%。公司计划于2017下半年对中国广发银行(BB+/稳定)再投资132亿人民币,总投资约占中国人寿2017上半年末资本金的20%,和 对中国联合网络通信股份有限公司投资217亿人民币。 中国人寿的利润率依然容易受到投资业绩的影响,公司的年化税前营运资产收益率因为利率降低和资本市场波动,由2015年的2.1%降至2016年的1.1%和2017上半 年的1.3%。 评级敏感性 惠誉认为,国家可能为中国人寿提供战略和财务支持,因为财政部经由其直接母公司中国人寿保险(集团)公司对公司有效持股达68.4%、投保人众多、并且公司在中国的金融系 统中具有重要角色(截至2017上半年末,资产价值共计2.9万亿人民币)。股东的支持和公司的核心企业地位支持中国人寿的评级。但是,如果中国的主权评级下调,则惠誉预 期因主权评级的限制,会对中国人寿采取类似的评级行动。 可能触发发行人违约评级和债务评级上调的因素包括公司的风险资产/股东权益比率降至130%以下、资本金水平改善(按照惠誉的Prism模型计算的资本金水平稳固于“良好 ” 或以上类)、以及财务杠杆率持续低于30%。 联系人: 首席分析师 Joyce Huang, (黄佳琪)CFA 董事 +852 2263 9595 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 第二分析师 Terrence Wong(王长泰) 董事 +852 2263 9920 评级委员会主席 Siew Wai Wan(尹兆伟) 高级董事 +65 6796 7217 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: 详情参见<a href=""> 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 Applicable Criteria Insurance Rating Methodology (pub. 26 Apr 2017) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here#solicitation Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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