September 4, 2017 / 1:52 AM / 19 days ago

惠誉授予中国邮政储蓄银行‘A+’的评级,展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, September 03 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年8月27日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1028336">Fitch Publishes Postal Savings Bank of China's 'A+' Rating; Outlook Stable< /a> 惠誉评级已公布中国邮政储蓄银行(邮储银行)的长期发行人违约评级为‘A+’,短期发行人违约评级为‘F1+’,评级展望为稳定。惠誉同时公布邮储银行的支持评级为‘1’ ,支持评级底线为‘A+’,生存力评级为‘bb+’。 关键评级驱动因素 发行人违约评级、支持评级、支持评级底线 邮储银行的发行人违约评级与其支持评级底线一致;银行与中国主权评级的强劲关联性反映出在银行出现危机时,中央政府为其提供及时支持的极高可能性。 邮储银行在2007年正式做为一家商业银行在中国成立,但银行通过自营和邮政集团代理网点的独特经营管理模式,有效执行多项政策相关功能,中国邮政集团是由财政部全资持有 的国有企业。中国邮政集团管理下的代理网点均由国务院和中国银行业监督管理委员会(银监会)审批。在银监会的监管体系下邮储银行与政策性银行在同一部门下管理。2016年 邮储银行在香港上市打开了市场融资渠道,目前银行由中国邮政集团持股68.92%,但中国邮政集团和财政部均曾在过去十年间向邮储银行注资,以支持银行的发展。此外,惠誉 预计中国邮政集团将保持对邮储银行的多数股权和控制权。 邮储银行的商业运营在一定程度上让步于其通过39,900个网点(中国银行中网点数量最多)服务于中国农村人口的政策性侧重。银行的很多网点与邮政集团旗下的邮政企业同址 办公。银行具有超过5.2亿人的客户群体,覆盖近三分之一的中国人口,对其中很多居住在边远农村地区的人而言,邮储银行在当地是唯一的提供这些基础金融服务的机构。邮储银 行的个人存款基础使其成为中国银行间市场上重要的净流动性提供者。值得注意的是,邮储银行在向小额信贷和农村客户提供金融服务以助力中国经济刺激与城镇化发展从而抵御国内 外压力方面发挥了重要的作用。 中国邮政集团具有受政府保护的专营权利,且根据《中华人民共和国邮政法》中的规定,负责在全国范围提供邮政服务。2016年,中国邮政集团的盈利中约有98%来自邮储银行 ,因此大大补贴了邮政服务的成本。邮储银行与中国邮政集团旗下的代理网点的整合度较高,使邮储银行具有很高的系统重要性,尤其是在农村地区,因此惠誉认为邮储银行比其他国 有银行承担更多的政策性任务。按照资产和个人存款衡量,邮储银行分别是中国第六大和第四大商业银行,其在县级以下地区的网点覆盖范围远高于中国农业银行(A/稳定)。 生存力评级 邮储银行‘bb+’的生存力评级是权衡其相比国有商业银行较低的风险偏好和较好的资产质量以及较低的盈利能力和资本水平得出的。其盈利能力和资本水平较低是因为其业务模式 的运营成本较高(包括向母公司支付代理费)。邮储银行的评级还受益于其强劲的资金和流动性状况,因为银行具有广泛的网络(包括代理网点)和独特的零售银行优势。 截至2016年末,邮储银行的存贷比仅为41%左右,85%的存款和53%的贷款来自零售银行,其中很大比例来自农村地区。邮储银行计划在未来两至三年内将存贷比提升至5 0%左右,惠誉认为银行的新增贷款将主要发放给个人贷款。邮储银行的信贷(包括贷款和非贷款)风险敞口较低,惠誉认为这意味着其资产质量将相对优于其他国有银行。截至20 16年底,银行的不良贷款和关注类贷款占贷款总额的1.7%,低于国有银行的平均水平5.3%。 邮储银行的惠誉核心资本比率为8.3%,相比之下国有银行的平均水平为11.5%,这是由于邮储银行的总资产回报率0.5%远低于国有银行的平均水平1.1%,因为其风险 偏好较低、运营成本杠杆率较高,进而盈利能力和内部资本生成能力相对较低。惠誉预计邮储银行与同类国有银行的资本差距仍将存在,但惠誉同时认为,邮储银行资产风险较低,且 预期银行因所有权和政策性角色可能获得较高水平的国家提供的一般支持。 评级敏感性 发行人违约评级、支持评级、支持评级底线 惠誉认为,国家为邮储银行提供特别支持的意愿比其他国有银行更强,因为邮储银行作为农村金融服务提供者和中国邮政集团旗下的关键子公司,比其他国有银行具有更重要的政策性 角色。尽管如此,惠誉认为,在所有权结构和提供的服务方面,邮储银行又不同于单纯政策性银行。如果中国主权评级下调,则也可能导致对邮储银行的负面评级行动,但主权评级上 调可能并不会导致对银行的正面评级行动。 邮储银行的评级的变化可能与中国主权评级密切相关,惠誉于2017年7月13日再次确认中国的主权评级为‘A+’。如果国家为邮储银行提供支持的能力或意愿发生任何变化, 包括相对于获得类似评级的同类银行发生变化,例如政府对银行的持股比例显着降低,导致对银行的政策影响力大幅减少,或支持机制发生变化,影响了银行与中国邮政集团或国家的 关系,则惠誉可能对其采取负面评级行动。 生存力评级 邮储银行的生存力评级将会受到惠誉对银行资产质量假设的变化的影响。惠誉预计银行的委外投资约占总资产的16%(而国有银行为1%,中型商业银行为19%),委外投资即银 行对由其他金融机构管理的资产或理财产品的投资。尽管惠誉认为银行的委外投资中很大比例实质上并不是信贷类资产(可能并不存在潜在高风险),但如果银行的风险偏好上升,可 能直接影响其资产质量,进而可能导致其生存力评级下调。 与中国的其他国有银行一样,如果惠誉认为运营环境对评级的限制程度较过去降低,则有可能上调邮储银行的生存力评级。这可能体现在监管机构更明确地致力于在增长目标之上优先 控制金融风险、信贷增长水平更加可持续、表外活动减少或惠誉对表外活动的担忧减轻(包括由于此类活动的透明度提高使担忧减轻)、对能够维持报告的资产质量比率有更大信心、 或银行的资本水平提高或盈利能力加强。然而,邮储银行的业务模式和服务将继续拖累其财务状况。 联系人: 首席分析师 Grace Wu(胡月明) 高级董事 +852 2263 9919 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 第二分析师 Jaclyn Wang (王瑾) 联席董事 +86 21 5097 3189 评级委员会主席 Ambreesh Srivastava 高级董事 +65 6796 7218 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 Applicable Criteria Global Bank Rating Criteria (pub. 25 Nov 2016) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here#solicitation Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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