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YouGov sets out methodology for British election model
May 31, 2017 / 9:58 AM / in 7 months

YouGov sets out methodology for British election model

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - British pollster YouGov on Wednesday set out the methodology behind its model which produced a shock projection that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose control of parliament in the June 8 election.

In stark contrast to opinion polls that have until the past week shown May on course for a big win in the snap election she called, the YouGov model suggested May would lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament.

The polling organisation said the model, developed by its data science team and London School of Economics Professor Ben Lauderdale, employed a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis to estimate the result in individual constituencies.

The polling company said it would update the first findings of the model later on Wednesday. (Reporting by Paul Sandle; editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

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