March 6, 2017 / 3:42 PM / 8 months ago

BUZZ-S&P 500: This time, March may mark the high

** On the 8-year anniversary of the 2009 financial crisis low, S&P 500 sitting just shy of major channel resistance from that period, raising the risk that, this time, March may see the index peak

** SPX has rallied as much as 260 pct off the major 666.79 Mar 6, 2009 trough, hitting high of 2400.98 last week

** Latest drift higher marked by remarkably low volatility. The S&P 500 its first move +/- 1 pct on Mar 1 for the first time in nearly 3 months. The VIX has remained tethered near multi-year lows around 11.5

** For the 96-month period from the March, 2009 low through end-Feb, index has closed up 63 months, while finished down 33 months (rallying 66 pct of the months)

** And over this period, and through this month’s highs, Cons Disc has been best performing SPX sector, up 459 pct; energy the worst group, up just 75 pct

** Shorter-term, however, SPX still appears at, or near, end of 5-wave advance from Jun 2016 trough; this as daily MACD threatens bear cross. Chart: reut.rs/2lTdVYA

** And now index falling below 2371.54 inflicts damage; index can suffer multi-week/month pull back, next support 2352.87

** As stands, 38.2 pct-50 pct Fibo retracement of Jun/Mar advance at 2244/2196; would fit with 6.5-8.5 pct correction before advance resumes for new highs

** Immediately overwhelming channel resistance can instead suggest advance intact; potential then to extend to 2500+

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