January 23, 2019 / 9:10 PM / 8 months ago

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ hits 2-week low as some economists see Nov GDP decline

 (Adds economist quote and details throughout, updates prices)
    * Canadian dollar rises 0.1 percent against the greenback
    * Loonie touches its weakest since Jan. 7 at 1.3371
    * Canadian retail sales fall 0.9 percent in November
    * Price of U.S. oil declines 0.7 percent
    * Canadian bond prices dip across the yield curve

    By Fergal Smith
    TORONTO, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged higher
against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, but the currency held
near an earlier two-week low after being pressured by a decline
in oil prices and domestic data showing a bigger-than-expected
drop in retail sales.
    At 3:25 p.m. (2025 GMT), the Canadian dollar          was
trading 0.1 percent higher at 1.3343 to the greenback, or 74.95
U.S. cents. The currency's strongest level of the session was
1.3305, while it touched its weakest since Jan. 7 at 1.3371.
    Canadian retail sales fell by 0.9 percent in November from
October, in large part because of lower gasoline prices, as well
as lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics
Canada said. Analysts had forecast a 0.6 percent decrease.
            
    It followed data on Tuesday showing that factory sales and
wholesale trade both slumped more than expected in November.
Some economists projected a decline in November gross domestic
product, which is due for release next week.
    "The run of soft Canadian data in November continues,
suggesting the economy likely dipped in the month and pointing
to some downside risk to even the BoC's 1.3 percent estimate for
Q4 GDP," Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets,
said in a research note.
    Chances of a Bank of Canada interest rate hike by July
slipped to less than 40 percent from nearly 50 percent before
the retail sales data, the overnight index swaps market
indicated.           
    Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the Canadian
economy was in good shape, although low oil prices were
delivering "a material shock" that would cut growth this year.
            
    The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, plunged as
much as 45 percent between October and December before paring
some of its decline in recent weeks.
    U.S. crude oil futures        settled 0.7 percent lower on
Wednesday at $52.62 a barrel, pressured by concerns about global
economic weakness, forecasts for record U.S. shale production
and declining U.S. gasoline prices.             
    Canadian government bond prices were slightly lower across
the yield curve, with the 10-year             falling 3 Canadian
cents to yield 1.974 percent.
    The gap between Canada's 10-year yield and its U.S.
equivalent widened by 1.7 basis points to a spread of 77.9 basis
points, its widest since Dec. 28.

 (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Peter
Cooney)
  
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below