October 10, 2019 / 6:05 AM / a month ago

TABLE-China says 2018/19 corn use in animal feed lower than expected

    BEIJING, Oct 10 (Reuters) - China on Thursday said estimates
for corn consumption in 2018/19 came in lower than expected
after a severe pig disease slashed the country's pig and sow
herd, and as hog and poultry output expansion wasn't as strong
as initially anticipated.  
    Corn consumption for feed for 2018/19 is now seen at 171
million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from last month's
forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in
its monthly crop report.
     China's pig herd fell by 38.7% in August versus a year ago,
according to official data released early last month, marking
another record drop as the impact of a year-long African swine
fever epidemic continues to emerge.
    China also lowered estimate for corn consumption for
industrial use for the year to 81 million tonnes, down 3.5
million tonnes from last month's forecast, as newly-added
production capacity at some corn processing plants did not go
online as scheduled, according to the monthly Chinese
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE).
    China's soybean imports for 2018/19 were seen at 83.1
million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from the previous forecast,
according to the CASDE report.  
    Key numbers from the CASDE are below
    
            2017/2  2018/2019  2019/2020   2019/2020  Percentage
             018    (October   (September  (October     change
                    estimate)  forecast)   forecast)  (2019/2020
                                                      Sept.-Oct.
                                                      forecast)
  Corn -                                                   
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted   42.40     42.13      41.48       41.48      0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output    259.07   257.33      255.51     257.09      0.62%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports    3.47     4.55        3.00       3.00       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  270.25   274.78      280.80     280.80      0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports    0.02     0.02        0.05       0.05       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -7.73    -12.92      -22.34     -20.76      8.48%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Soybean -                                                 
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted    8.25     8.40        9.07       9.07       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output    15.28     16.00      17.23       17.23      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports   94.13     83.10      84.00       84.00      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  107.05   102.91      102.85     102.85      0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports    0.14     0.14        0.15       0.15       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance    2.22     -3.95      -1.77       -1.77      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Cotton -                                                  
 crop year                                            
 Sept-Aug                                             
 Beginning   8.75     7.43        7.23       7.21        0.3%
  stocks                                              
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Planted    3.35     3.37        3.30       3.30       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output     5.89     6.04        5.80       5.80       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports    1.32     2.03        2.10       1.60      -23.81%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti   8.49     8.25        8.25       8.05       0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports    0.04     0.04        0.04       0.04       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Ending     7.43     7.21        6.84       6.52       -4.60%
  Stocks                                              
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Sugar -                                                  
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted    1.38     1.48        1.48       1.48       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
   Cane      1.20     1.24        1.24       1.24       0.00%
   Beet      0.18     0.23        0.24       0.24       0.00%
  Output    10.31     10.76      10.88       10.88      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
   Cane      9.16     9.44        9.49       9.49       0.00%
   sugar                                              
   Beet      1.15     1.32        1.39       1.39       0.00%
   sugar                                              
  Imports    2.43     2.90        3.04       3.04       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  15.10     15.20      15.20       15.20      0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports    0.18     0.18        0.18       0.18       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -2.54     -1.72      -1.46       -1.46      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Edible                                                   
  oils -                                              
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Output    27.25     25.50      25.79       25.79      0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Soybean   15.87     14.39      14.61       14.61      0.00%
    oil                                               
 Rapeseed    5.89     5.70        5.63       5.63       0.00%
  Peanut     3.12     3.07        3.12       3.12       0.00%
    oil                                               
  Imports    6.11     8.26        6.91       7.76       12.30%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Palm oil    3.58     4.80        4.05       4.40       8.64%
 Rapeseed    1.07     1.45        1.10       1.30       18.18%
  Soybean    0.48     0.75        0.60       0.75       25.00%
    oil                                               
 Consumpti  33.36     33.30      33.36       33.36      0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports    0.29     0.28        0.26       0.21       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -0.28     0.16       -0.91       -0.01     -21.33%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
                                                      
 CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which
 Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state reserves.
     Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the
 beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports, minus
 consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only
 includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This appears
 to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus
 consumption and exports.
 
 (Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; editing by
Uttaresh.V)
  
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