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EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira hits record low, EM stocks slip
January 9, 2017 / 10:39 AM / a year ago

EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira hits record low, EM stocks slip

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira hit record lows against the dollar on Monday as expectations of faster tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve added to domestic economic and political pressures/

Emerging market equities in general slipped 0.4 percent.

The lira was down more than 2 percent to 3.72 to the dollar after Friday’s data showed U.S. wages rose in December prompting U.S. rate hike expectations. .

“The lira has always been one of the most exposed EM currencies to any sign that monetary policy in the U.S. will tighten because of its large external financing requirement,” said William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

“(Turkish) domestic policy-making is playing a role too as it seems the central bank is responding to political pressure not to raise interest rates, so it is likely to be behind the curve in reacting to pressure in the currency,” he added.

The lira lost 3.2 percent last week, pounded by higher-than-expected inflation and security fears after a series of gun and bomb attacks. The economy has remained sluggish, with a smaller-than-expected rise in industrial production in November, whilst Moody’s has warned that bank profits will be hit by increased non-performing loans.

Turkish 5-year credit default swaps rose 3 basis points (bps) from Friday’s close to 273 bps, whilst the yield premium paid by Turkish sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasuries on the JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified widened out 9 bps to 359 bps.

The stronger dollar and expectations of faster Fed tightening also created headwinds for other vulnerable emerging market currencies and contributed to more subdued investor appetite for riskier assets, with the benchmark emerging stocks index down 0.4 percent.

The yield premium on the JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified also widened out 3 bps to 327 bps.

The Mexican peso, which remains vulnerable to any restrictions on trade, weakened 0.23 percent. It was still trading above record lows hit last week, which had prompted the Mexican central bank to intervene.

On Friday, Trump said Mexico repeated that Mexico would repay the United States for his planned border wall , capping a week in which carmaker Ford cancelled a planned factory in Mexico following criticism from Trump.

China’s onshore yuan slipped 0.24 percent and the offshore yuan gave back some of the sharp gains it made last week. But borrowing costs retreated from record highs, with overnight yuan deposit rates falling to around 10 percent from Friday’s high of 87 percent.

In recent weeks the Chinese authorities have intervened in both onshore and offshore currency markets by selling dollars aggressively to prevent the yuan from depreciating too quickly, with Trump vowing to label China a currency manipulator.

Data released at the weekend showed China’s foreign exchange reserves fell for a sixth consecutive month in December to near-six year lows of $3.011 trillion.

Central bank adviser Fan Gong said the decline in forex reserves was good news in the long-run, adding that the yuan had been overvalued for the last three or four years.

Chinese mainland stocks were up about 0.5 percent and Hong Kong shares rose 0.25 percent, with China confident it reached 6.7 percent economic growth in 2016.

The Russian rouble weakened 0.6 percent versus the dollar and Moscow dollar-denominated stocks retreated 0.8 percent with oil prices falling 1.7 percent to around $56 a barrel.

Trump has now accepted that Russia engaged in cyber attacks during the U.S. presidential election and may take action in response. This may prompt a reversal of the view that Western sanctions on Russia will soon be lifted.

The South African rand slipped 0.3 percent against the dollar. Over the weekend the chances of President Jacob Zuma’s ex-wife becoming the next leader of the ruling ANC party were given a boost with an endorsement from the party’s women’s division. Zuma also called for an end to ANC infighting.

The Polish zloty weakened 0.4 percent against the euro. The central bank is seen keeping interest rates on hold at a record low of 1.5 percent at its rate setting meeting on Wednesday.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2016, see For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2016, see

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see )

Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 877.74 -3.37 -0.38 +1.79

Czech Rep 937.06 -0.46 -0.05 +1.68

Poland 2001.16 +2.40 +0.12 +2.73

Hungary 32808.78 -47.09 -0.14 +2.52

Romania 7239.86 +20.59 +0.29 +2.19

Greece 654.43 -5.87 -0.89 +1.68

Russia 1162.39 -10.20 -0.87 +0.87

South Africa 44471.07 +14.58 +0.03 +1.30

Turkey 76918.17 -188.40 -0.24 -1.56

China 3171.60 +17.28 +0.55 +2.19

India 26729.11 -30.12 -0.11 +0.39

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 27.00 27.01 +0.03 +0.02

Poland 4.38 4.35 -0.55 +0.64

Hungary 307.85 307.03 -0.27 +0.32

Romania 4.50 4.50 +0.04 +0.74

Serbia 123.56 123.65 +0.07 -0.17

Russia 59.95 59.56 -0.66 +2.19

Kazakhstan 331.80 331.31 -0.15 +0.56

Ukraine 26.90 26.90 -0.00 +0.37

South Africa 13.79 13.73 -0.45 -0.44

Kenya 103.75 103.60 -0.14 -1.33

Israel 3.86 3.84 -0.45 -0.17

Turkey 3.72 3.64 -2.17 -5.28

China 6.93 6.92 -0.24 +0.13

India 68.20 68.09 -0.16 -0.37

Brazil 3.22 3.22 +0.00 +0.91

Mexico 21.30 21.22 -0.39 -2.75

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov‘gn Debt EMBIG 353 3 .06 7 47.88 1

0 : 0
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