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EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira's slump sours emerging market mood
January 11, 2017 / 10:23 AM / a year ago

EMERGING MARKETS-Turkish lira's slump sours emerging market mood

LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira skidded 2 percent to record lows on Wednesday, unnerved by authorities’ failure to announce decisive stabilising steps as the currency decoupled from broader emerging markets, which mostly traded firmer.

The lira has already lost 8.5 percent against the dollar this year - the world's worst-performing big currency - shrugging off the central bank's Tuesday move to add dollar liquidity to financial markets and a smaller-than-expected current account deficit.

The moves are filtering through to bond markets, with local 10-year yields opening some 30 basis points (bps) higher and dollar bonds falling 0.7-1.0 cent lower across the curve.

Options markets indicate more pain for the currency, with one-month risk reversals, which measure the relative demand for options on a currency rising or falling against the dollar, showing a bias for further weakness.

“It’s January, but the lira has gone through most people’s year-end forecasts. I think it can keep weakening if the central bank doesn’t do something as flow pressures will work against it,” said UniCredit strategist Kiran Kowshik.

Kowshik noted Turkey’s weaknesses: regular militant attacks that deter tourism and investment, negative real interest rates and an annual external funding requirement of around 30 percent of GDP - far higher than most big emerging markets.

“At the end of the day they need to get real rates significantly higher ... They need to do in one shot and they need to do it quickly,” said Kowshik who reckons a 300 bps hike may be needed.

But Turkey was an outlier among emerging markets. MSCI’s main emerging equity index tracked world stocks higher, reaching two-month highs.

Turkish stocks, however, fell 0.5 percent

Many reckon U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s 1600 GMT press conference will offer detail on his infrastructure spending plans, a potential positive for global commodity prices. The rand and rouble traded marginally firmer against the dollar .

There was calm on the China front as Beijing loosened its grip on offshore yuan money markets, causing overnight borrowing costs to fall sharply.

However, the Mexican peso was trading near record lows despite $2 billion in central bank interventions last week as many investors braced for more belligerent comments from Trump on trade and immigration.

“The factors driving the peso now are, first, expectations on Trump’s presidency and in particular his press conference today and, second, concern about government finances and rating downgrades,” analysts at SEB told clients.

They raised the possibility that the government could be forced to reverse recent gasoline price increases, hitting finances.

“Market fears that the administration ... will fail to consolidate public finances will also weigh on the peso over the coming weeks and months. Expect dollar/peso to touch new highs 22.00,” SEB said.

In contrast to Mexico, Brazil’s real traded just off two-month highs ahead of an expected 50 bps interest rate cut later in the day.

The zloty was flat, with Polish interest rates seen holding steady.

The Czech crown, meanwhile, continued to firm in forward markets after inflation reached four-year highs, raising investor conviction that the currency’s cap against the euro will be scrapped by mid-year. The Czech crown could climb 3.5 percent against the euro by the end of 2017, a Reuters poll predicted.

The six-month crown forward contract implied an exchange rate of 26.684, the strongest since currency interventions started in November 2013. The spot rate is 27 per euro.

On bond markets, Israel opened books on a dual tranche 10- and 20-year euro issue

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see ) Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 888.64 +2.94 +0.33 +3.06

Czech Rep 926.58 +0.50 +0.05 +0.54

Poland 2025.86 +2.22 +0.11 +4.00

Hungary 33067.43 +35.90 +0.11 +3.33

Romania 7236.97 -7.14 -0.10 +2.14

Greece 661.62 +1.06 +0.16 +2.79

Russia 1173.12 -1.89 -0.16 +1.80

South Africa 45234.08 +214.28 +0.48 +3.03

Turkey 76985.11 -408.58 -0.53 -1.48

China 3137.42 -24.25 -0.77 +1.09

India 27144.25 +244.69 +0.91 +1.94

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 27.01 27.01 -0.01 -0.02

Poland 4.37 4.37 +0.07 +0.88

Hungary 309.20 308.81 -0.13 -0.12

Romania 4.49 4.49 +0.07 +0.97

Serbia 123.63 123.60 -0.02 -0.23

Russia 60.09 60.07 -0.03 +1.95

Kazakhstan 333.95 332.96 -0.30 -0.09

Ukraine 27.17 27.10 -0.26 -0.63

South Africa 13.69 13.73 +0.26 +0.30

Kenya 103.70 103.70 +0.00 -1.28

Israel 3.86 3.84 -0.36 -0.13

Turkey 3.84 3.79 -1.51 -8.27

China 6.93 6.92 -0.17 +0.19

India 68.37 68.32 -0.08 -0.62

Brazil 3.20 3.20 +0.02 +1.82

Mexico 21.75 21.80 +0.22 -4.76

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov‘gn Debt EMBIG 359 1 .09 7 46.27 1

All data taken from Reuters at 09:41 GMT. Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130 GMT.

Editing by Larry King

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