December 16, 2013 / 10:43 PM / in 7 years

FACTBOX-U.S. oil production to approach record high -EIA outlook

(Updates with 2019 oil, shale oil forecasts in table)
    Dec 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production, rejuvenated by the advent of
"fracking" shale formations, will approach historic highs by 2019, the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday, hiking its forecast to levels
that would have been unforeseen just a few years ago. 
    Below are some key forecasts from the EIA's early release of the 2014 Annual
Energy Outlook in comparison to forecasts it made in its 2013 AEO. The EIA will
issue a full report in the spring of next year.
    
 Forecast                         AEO 2014                AEO 2013
 Crude oil production 2019        9.6 mln bpd             7.5 mln bpd 
 Crude oil production 2040        7.5 mln bpd             6 mln bpd 
 Crude production growth per      0.8 mln bpd through to  0.2 mln bpd through
 year                             2016                    to 2019
 Shale oil production 2013        3.5 mln bpd             2.3 mln bpd 
 Shale oil production/peak year   4.8 mln bpd             2.8 mln bpd 
 Shale oil production 2040        3.2 mln bpd             2.0 mln bpd
 Natural gas production 2025      31.9 tcf                28.7 tcf 
 Natural gas production 2040      37.6 tcf                33.2 tcf 
 LNG exports                      3.5 tcf by 2029         1.6 tcf by 2027
 Imports of liquid fuel as share  25 pct by 2016          34 pct by 2019
 of total use                     32 pct by 2040          37 pct by 2040
 oil price (per Brent barrel)     $92 in 2017             $96 in 2015
                                  $141 ($235*) in 2040    $163 ($269*) in 2040
 gas price (Henry Hub) 2018       $4.80/MMBtu             $4.03/MMBtu 
 gas price (Henry Hub) 2040       $7.65/MMBtu             7.83/MMbtu 
 electricity generated by coal    32 pct                  35 pct 
 and by natural gas in 2040       35 pct                  30 pct 
 Source: EIA's Annual Energy Outlook early release 2013 and 2014
    * First price is in 2012 dollars, price in brackets is in nominal dollars.
    
    Bpd   - barrels per day
    Tcf   - trillion cubic feet
    MMBtu - million British thermal units
    Pct   - percent
    Mln   - million

 (Reporting by Sabina Zawadzki; editing by Jim Marshall)
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