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Buying bias? Investors grab German bonds before ECB redemption reveal
November 6, 2017 / 9:07 AM / in 12 days

Buying bias? Investors grab German bonds before ECB redemption reveal

* ECB to publish new redemption data at 1445GMT

* Investors looking for clues on future purchases

* Data may confirm bias towards German bonds, say analysts

* Euro zone periphery govt bond yields tmsnrt.rs/2ii2Bqr

By John Geddie

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Germany’s benchmark bond yield hit its lowest level in nearly two months on Monday as investors waited for data from the European Central Bank that could give clues to where it will focus future asset purchases.

The ECB last month announced an extension to its bond-buying programme until at least September, and while it will lower the rate of new purchases from January it has also said it will reinvest proceeds from bonds it has previously bought.

To allow investors to gauge those reinvestment needs over the next twelve months, the ECB will for the first time on Monday publish the expected monthly redemption amounts alongside its usual monthly purchase data at 1445GMT.

While this is not expected to include a breakdown of redemptions by country, analysts and investors are hoping to gain some insight into the ECB’s historical redemption patterns, which it is also expected to publish.

“More than the absolute amounts, the split by countries will be quite important,” RBC’s global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik said.

“We suspect that the ‘Germany’ redemptions will be substantially higher than any other bracket – and also be higher than the capital key suggests.”

Schaffrik added that data suggested the ECB has bought German bonds of a shorter maturity on average than those in peripheral countries. Therefore, they would be first to mature.

German 10-year bond yields - which move inversely to price - fell slightly further than their euro zone peers on Monday, down 2 basis points at their lowest in around two months of 0.34 percent.

Yields on lower-rated equivalents in Spain, Portugal and Italy fell 1 bps.

Bond markets were broadly supported by a sense that the ECB is in no rush to exit its ultra-easy stance.

The Bank’s chief economist Peter Praet on Monday said the decision to extend asset purchases was warranted by weak inflation and reinforced its guidance to keep rates at their current level for an extended period.

Late on Friday, Benoit Coeure, who is the ECB’s director in charge of the asset purchases, said the decision to extend purchases might result in a stronger euro but added that the exchange rate was not a policy target for the ECB.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets

Reporting by John Geddie; editing by John Stonestreet

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