July 8, 2019 / 7:59 AM / a year ago

FOREX-Dollar holds near 3-week high as bets on sharp U.S. rate cut drop

* Markets reprice chance of big Fed cut after jobs data

* Turkey’s lira plunges after dismissal of cenbank governor

* Sterling falls towards $1.25, close to six-month low

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - The dollar held near three-week highs in early trading on Monday, holding on to its gains after last week’s strong U.S. jobs data lowered expectations for a sharp Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Elsewhere, the Turkish lira fell sharply after President Tayyip Erdogan dismissed the central bank governor, sparking worries about the bank’s independence.

U.S. non-farm payrolls rebounded in June to 224,000, the most in five months, data showed on Friday, beating economists’ consensus estimate of 160,000.

The solid outcome virtually wipes out chances for a half point Fed rate cut at the end of July, but modest wage gains and other data showing the world’s largest economy was losing steam could still encourage the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points.

“We still expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this month. The underlying trend for employment growth is still weakening,” MUFG analysts wrote in a research note.

“Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue to trade on a firmer footing in the near-term given downside risks from a larger rate cut have diminished.”

The dollar index stood at 97.229 in early London trading, below the near 3-week high of 97.443 it hit on Friday.

The greenback’s rebound follows a period of weakness as mounting expectations for Fed rate cuts weighed on the currency.

The euro, which dropped to $1.1208 on Friday, traded at $1.1225, unchanged on the day.

The common currency came under pressure on Friday after data showed that German industrial orders fell far more than expected in May.

Traders’ focus quickly shifted to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, due on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as U.S. inflation data out later this week.

The British pound hit a six-month low to the dollar on Friday, after poor economic data and a rise in expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates.

It was last quoted at $1.2513, down 0.2% on the day.

The Turkish lira slid to as low as 5.8245 to the dollar , its lowest in two weeks, in early Asian trade. It last stood at 5.735, down 1.8% on the day.

“Some naive market participants might still hope that the new central bank governor will come across as being independent in a statement announced for this week and at least does not cut interest rates right away,” Commerzbank analysts said.

“That may be the case but does not change the fact that medium term sensible Turkish monetary policy will not be possible.”

In a written statement on Saturday, new governor Murat Uysal said he would implement monetary policy instruments independently with a focus on achieving and maintaining the primary objective of price stability.

The Japanese currency strengthened 0.1% to 108.34 yen per dollar, above 3-week lows of 108.64 yen. (Additional reporting by Tomo Uetake in Tokyo; Editing by Toby Chopra)

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below