October 1, 2018 / 1:49 AM / 2 months ago

GRAINS-Soybean prices struggle with large US inventories, bumper crop outlook

    SINGAPORE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Chicago soybean futures were
little changed on Monday after dropping more than 1 percent in
the last session, with the market under pressure from U.S.
stockpiles at 11-year highs and expectations of a record crop.
    Wheat inched higher, snapping a four-session losing streak,
while corn ticked up after dropping more than 2 percent on
Friday.
    
    FUNDAMENTALS
    * U.S. corn and soybean supplies were bigger than expected
despite record usage during the summer, the U.S. government said
on Friday.
    * In its quarterly stocks report, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture said that soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 stood at
438.1 million bushels, the biggest in 11 years. The corn
stockpile totalled 2.140 billion bushels, down 7 percent from a
year earlier.
    * Wheat stocks were 2.379 billion bushels compared to 2.253
billion bushels a year ago.
    * Soybean supplies have increased as a trade row between
Washington and Beijing has slowed U.S. exports to China, the
world's top importer of the oilseed. Last week, soybean futures
neared a 10-year low on worries over the dispute.
    * The USDA also increased its estimate for last year's U.S.
soybean harvest by 0.4 percent to 4.411 billion bushels.
Analysts on average were expecting the agency to trim its
estimate.
    * The agency has boosted its estimate for the 2017-18 U.S.
wheat crop by 7 million bushels to 1.884 billion bushels.
Analysts, on average, had expected the government's wheat
harvest estimate to fall to 1.872 billion bushels.
    * U.S. wheat exports have faced stiff competition from the
Black Sea region. 
    * In Europe, parched soils have hampered late-summer
rapeseed sowing, raising the prospect that farmers will shift
towards attractively priced wheat for next year's harvest,
analysts said.
    * India's rapeseed production in 2018/19 could jump nearly
17 percent from a year ago to 7 million tonnes as higher prices
are likely to prompt farmers to expand areas under planting, a
leading Indian edible oil importer said.
    
    MARKET NEWS
    * The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso rose on Monday on
hopes of progress in negotiations over a renewed North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, but Asian shares got off to a
slow start amid further signs of weakness in China.
    
    DATA AHEAD (GMT)
0600  Germany            Retail sales                   Aug
0750  France             Markit manufacturing PMI       Sep
0755  Germany            Markit/BME manufacturing PMI   Sep
0800  Euro zone          Markit manufacturing PMI final Sep
0900  Euro zone          Unemployment rate              Aug
1400  U.S.               Construction spending          Aug
1400  U.S.               ISM manufacturing PMI          Sep

 Grains prices at  0131 GMT
 Contract    Last    Change   Pct chg  Two-day chg  MA 30   RSI
 CBOT wheat  510.75  1.75     +0.34%   -0.44%       524.18  47
 CBOT corn   356.75  0.50     +0.14%   -2.19%       360.14  50
 CBOT soy    845.25  -0.25    -0.03%   -1.14%       844.83  53
 CBOT rice   9.85    $0.07    +0.72%   +0.66%       $10.43  34
 WTI crude   73.40   $0.15    +0.20%   +1.77%       $69.67  76
 Currencies                                                 
 Euro/dlr    $1.160  -$0.001  -0.09%   -0.35%               
 USD/AUD     0.7219  -0.001   -0.12%   +0.18%               
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per
 hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Reporting by Naveen Thukral
Editing by Joseph Radford)
  
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