July 12, 2019 / 1:08 AM / 2 months ago

GRAINS-Soybeans edge higher, set for weekly gain of nearly 3%

    SYDNEY, July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures edged
higher on Friday, with the oilseed poised to record a weekly
gain of nearly 3% after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said
production would be below market forecasts.
         
    FUNDAMENTALS  
    * The most active soybean futures contract on the Chicago
Board Of Trade is up nearly 3% for the week, the biggest
weekly rally in a month.
    * The most active corn futures were steady, but up
more than 1% for the week, gaining for a second week.
    * The most active wheat futures eased slightly but are
up 1% for the week, the first weekly gain in a month. 
    * The USDA lowered its U.S. 2019-20 soybean production
estimate to 3.845 billion bushels, down from 4.150 billion in
June. The USDA cut its soybean yield estimate to 48.5 bushels
per acre, from 49.5 in June, a slightly below market estimates.

    * The USDA in its July supply/demand report lowered its
forecast of 2019/20 wheat production in Russia, the European
Union, Australia and Canada.
    * The USDA lowered its forecast of 2019/20 global wheat
ending stocks to 286.46 million tonnes, down from 294.34 million
in June and near the low end of a range of analyst expectations.

    * The USDA also trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2019/20 wheat
ending stocks to 1.0 billion bushels, lower than most analysts
had expected, although its estimate of U.S. all-wheat production
was 1.921 billion bushels, above an average of trade
expectations.
    * For corn, the USDA raised its production forecast to
13.875 billion bushels, based on its larger-than-expected June
28 planted acreage estimate of 91.7 million acres.
    * The government left its estimate of the U.S. corn yield
unchanged at 166.0 bushels per acre, while most analysts in a
Reuters survey had expected a slight reduction.
            
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The dollar was steady on Friday, having regained some
traction against its peers after stronger-than-expected U.S.
inflation data tempered the prospect of an aggressive Federal
Reserve interest rate cut later this month.  
    * Oil prices fell on Thursday as OPEC forecast slower demand
for its crude next year, with crude futures easing from their
highest in more than a month after U.S. producers cut about half
of their output in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of what could be one
of the first major storms of the Atlantic hurricane.  
    * The Dow and S&P 500 rose on Thursday to close at record
highs as health insurers gained after the Trump administration
scrapped a plan designed to rein in prescription drug prices,
while financial shares climbed with bond yields.  
        
 Grains prices at  0037 GMT
 Contract      Last   Change  Pct chg   Two-day chg   MA 30   RSI 
 CBOT wheat  520.75    -0.75   -0.14%        +3.17%  522.88     60
 CBOT corn   448.00     0.00   +0.00%        +1.93%  441.43     64
 CBOT soy    919.25     2.00   +0.22%        +0.71%  910.02     57
 CBOT rice    11.90   -$0.03   -0.25%        -0.21%  $11.78     69
 WTI crude    60.48    $0.28   +0.47%        +0.08%  $55.81     69
 Currencies                                                       
 Euro/dlr    $1.125   $0.000   -0.01%        +0.02%               
 USD/AUD     0.6978    0.001   +0.07%        +0.30%               
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 
    

 (Reporting by Colin Packham; editing by Richard Pullin)
  
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