April 11, 2018 / 2:14 AM / 10 days ago

GRAINS-Soybeans extend rally into fifth session, near one-month high

    SYDNEY, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans rose for a fifth
consecutive session on Wednesday to sit near a one-month high
after the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged its
end-of-season forecast below market expectations.
         
    FUNDAMENTALS  
    * The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of
Trade rose 0.5 percent to $10.55 a bushel by 0134 GMT,
having firmed 0.3 percent on Tuesday when prices hit a high of
$10.64 a bushel - the highest since March 9. 
    * The most active corn futures added 0.1 percent to
$3.89-3/4 a bushel, having fallen 0.4 percent in the previous
session.
    * The most active wheat futures fell 0.5 percent to
$4.89-3/4 a bushel, having closed up 0.3 percent on Tuesday when
prices hit a high of $4.94 a bushel - the highest since March
13.
    * USDA trimmed its 2017-18 U.S. soybean ending stocks
forecast to 550 million bushels, down from 555 million last
month and below an average of analyst estimates for 574 million.

    * The government raised its estimate of the U.S. 2017-18
soybean crush, implying strong processor demand for soybeans and
increased production of soymeal, while leaving its U.S. soy
export forecast unchanged.
    * The USDA slashed its estimate of Argentina's drought-hit
soybean crop to 40 million tonnes, from 47 million in March,
while raising its estimate of Brazil's soy crop to 115 million
tonnes, from 113 million last month.
    * The USDA late on Monday rated 30 percent of the U.S.
winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 32
percent a week earlier and 53 percent a year ago.

         
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The dollar rose on Tuesday to a four-day high against the
Japanese yen after Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to cut
import tariffs, easing concerns about a U.S.-China trade
conflict between that had fed safe-haven demand for yen. 
    * Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, adding to steep
gains in the previous session, as markets eyed an escalation of
Middle East tensions after Europe's air traffic control agency
warned of possible air strikes on Syria in the next 72 hours.
  
    * U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as investor concerns about
rising trade tensions between the United States and China eased
after Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to cut import
tariffs.  
    
    DATA AHEAD (GMT)
0130  China                Consumer prices                  Mar
0130  China                Producer prices                  Mar
1230  U.S.                 Consumer prices                  Mar
1500  U.S.                 Cleveland Fed CPI                Mar
1800  Federal Reserve releases minutes from its March 20-21
    
 Grains prices at  0134 GMT
 Contract       Last  Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg    MA 30  RSI 
 CBOT wheat   489.75   -2.25   -0.46%       -0.20%   475.57    70
 CBOT corn    389.75    0.50   +0.13%       -0.26%   384.42    61
 CBOT soy    1055.00    5.00   +0.48%       +0.76%  1042.65    65
 CBOT rice     12.80   $0.03   +0.20%       -0.16%   $12.44    75
 WTI crude     65.52   $0.01   +0.02%       +3.31%   $62.99    62
 Currencies                                                      
 Euro/dlr     $1.236  $0.000   +0.02%       +0.31%               
 USD/AUD      0.7762   0.000   +0.04%       +0.84%               
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 

 (Reporting by Colin Packham; editing by Richard Pullin)
  
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