June 11, 2018 / 12:56 AM / 6 months ago

GRAINS-Wheat rises on production concerns, soybeans pressured by crop-friendly U.S. weather

    SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat future gained
more than 1 percent on Monday, rising for a fourth session in
five with support from expectations of lower production in the
Black Sea region.
    Soybeans ticked down to trade near last session's lowest
since mid-January as near-perfect weather across the U.S.
Midwest raised hopes of a bumper harvest.
    
    FUNDAMENTALS
    * Dry weather in top wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine is
underpinning the wheat market.
    * Russia's wheat production is expected to decline to around
72 million tonnes in the year to June 2019, compared with a
record output of 84.99 million tonnes this year, according to
the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
    * Severe drought in eastern and southern regions could
shrink Ukraine's 2018 wheat harvest by 15-30 percent below
original forecasts, the state hydrometeorological centre said on
Friday.
    * Ukraine has seen no substantial rain since April and none
is forecast in the next 7 days. High temperatures and a lack of
rain could reduce wheat yield, a senior official at the centre,
who asked not to be identified, told Reuters.
    * Chicago wheat futures are forecast to remain over $5 a
bushel in the second half of 2018, reflecting weather-reduced
harvests in several countries, Commerzbank said on Thursday.
    * Still, relieved farmers in Australia's export-focused west
are celebrating good rainfall at the end of the winter
wheat-planting window, although conditions remain parched in the
eastern states.
    * The rain has provided relief to some parts of the country
after difficult conditions threatened to cut crop yields for a
second successive season in the world's fourth-largest wheat
exporter.
    * Rainy conditions across the heart of the Midwest farm belt
pressured grain prices this week as recently planted corn and
soybean crops are off to a strong start to the growing season.
The U.S. Agriculture Department's crop condition ratings are
among the highest on record for both crops.
    * Large speculators cut their net long position in Chicago
Board of Trade corn futures in the week to June 5, regulatory
data released on Friday showed. 
    * The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly
commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial
traders, a category that includes hedge funds, trimmed their net
short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in
soybeans.
    
    MARKET NEWS
    * Stocks markets were expected to be on the defensive on
Monday as a weekend G7 summit fanned trade war fears after U.S.
President Donald Trump backed out of a joint communique in a
blow to the group's efforts to show a united front.
    
    DATA AHEAD (GMT)
    No major data scheduled for release on Monday

 Grains prices at  0041 GMT
 Contract    Last    Change   Pct chg  Two-day chg  MA 30    RSI
 CBOT wheat  526.50  6.50     +1.25%   +1.30%       516.50   54
 CBOT corn   378.25  0.50     +0.13%   +0.00%       397.59   28
 CBOT soy    969.75  0.50     +0.05%   -2.46%       1019.98  18
 CBOT rice   11.16   -$0.03   -0.22%   -3.46%       $12.18   36
 WTI crude   65.60   -$0.14   -0.21%   -0.53%       $68.88   39
 Currencies                                                  
 Euro/dlr    $1.179  -$0.001  -0.10%   +0.10%                
 USD/AUD     0.7602  -0.002   -0.30%   -0.83%                
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per
 hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
  
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