January 16, 2018 / 7:39 AM / a month ago

UPDATE 1-Analyst cuts Ukraine 2017/18 maize harvest, export forecast

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    KIEV, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Analyst UkrAgroConsult on Tuesday
cut Ukraine's 2017/18 maize export forecast by 2.6 percent to 19
million tonnes due to a smaller harvest and tight competition
from South American countries.
    The consultancy lowered its forecast of the 2017 maize
harvest to 24.7 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 25
million because of a smaller-than-expected maize yield, it said
in a statement.
    Ukraine harvested 26.2 million tonnes of maize in 2016 and
exported 21.2 million tonnes.
    But a jump in supply from Brazil and other South American
countries is likely to affect Ukrainian sales to its main export
destinations like the European Union and the Middle East.
    "Exports to EU countries fell by 38 percent in the first
three months of the season, to 827,200 tonnes. In turn, Brazil
actually increased supplies to this market tenfold to 2.585
million tonnes," UkrAgroConsult said.
    It said Ukraine had also lost its market share in Iran,
Egypt and South Korea.
    The consultancy said that this adversity was offset by
growing interest of China, Turkey and Israel.
    China imported 540,000 tonnes of Ukrainian maize compared
with 1,400 tonnes in September-November 2016/17. Turkey bought
130,000 tonnes compared with 140 tonnes, while Israel increased
its imports from Ukraine by 63 percent to 243,550 tonnes.
    
    UKRAINE 2017/18 MAIZE SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
                               2017/18            2016/17
  open stocks (tonnes)         405,000            865,000
 acreage harvested (ha)       4,350,000          4,200,000
      yield (T/ha)              5.68               6.24
    harvest (tonnes)         24,700,000         26,200,000
     supply (tonnes)         25,135,000         27,095,000
    exports (tonnes)         19,000,000         21,200,000
     demand (tonnes)         24,740,000         26,690,000
  ending stocks(tonnes)        395,000            405,000
  (UkrAgroConsult)

 (Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Christian Schmollinger
and Louise Heavens)
  
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