March 6, 2018 / 7:41 AM / 3 months ago

UPDATE 1-Analyst ups Ukraine 2018 wheat, barley crop, export forecast

 (Quotes, details, tables)
    KIEV, March 6 (Reuters) - Analyst UkrAgroConsult on Tuesday
raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2018 wheat crop by 4.8 percent
to 26.3 million tonnes mostly due to a larger harvested area.
    The consultancy said in a statement the higher output would
allow the country to export 17 million tonnes of wheat in the
2018/19 crop season.
    This year, Ukraine is likely to harvest 6.4 million hectares
of wheat with the average yield of 4.11 tonnes per hectare, the
consultancy said.
    In 2017 Ukraine harvested wheat from the area of 6.2 million
hectares while the yield was at 4.21 tonnes per hectare.
    "Ukrainian winter cereals are in the best condition in four
years. And, since the winter of 2017/18 was quite mild in terms
of both temperature and precipitation, loss rates in winter
cereals are likely to be low," UkrAgroConsult said.
    "In particular, we expect that, at most, 1 percent of winter
wheat will be lost."
    UkrAgroConsult said that a larger barley harvested area was
the main reason for a higher crop and export outlook this year.
    Farmers are likely to sow 2.7 million hectares of barley
this year and could harvest 2.67 million hectares, with an
average yield of 3.26 tonnes.
    Last year, Ukraine harvested 2.5 million hectares of barley
with the yield of 3.32 tonnes.
    "Based on our forecast of a 6.5-7 percent rise in Ukrainian
plantings of barley - to 2.7 million hectares, its production
may amount to some 8.6-8.8 million tonnes in 2018. So, Ukraine’s
export potential may reach 5 million tonnes in 2018/19," the
consultancy said.
           
        UKRAINE 2018/19 WHEAT SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE     
                          2018/19         2017/18
 open stocks (tonnes)    1,203,000       1,061,000
 area harvested (ha)     6,400,000       6,300,000
     yield (t/ha)          4.11            4.17
   harvest (tonnes)     26,300,000      26,100,000
   exports (tonnes)     17,000,000      16,500,000
   demand (tonnes)      26,500,000      25,960,000
    ending stocks        1,005,000       1,203,000
 
        UKRAINE 2018/19 BARLEY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE     
                          2018/19         2017/18
 open stocks (tonnes)     436,000         359,000
 area harvested (ha)     2,670,000       2,500,000
     yield (t/ha)          3.26            3.32
   harvest (tonnes)      8,700,000       8,300,000
   exports (tonnes)      5,000,000       4,500,000
   demand (tonnes)       8,760,000       8,225,000
    ending stocks         378,000         436,000
 (UkrAgroConsult)

 (Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Christian Schmollinger
and Louise Heavens)
  
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