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November 7, 2016 / 6:53 AM / a year ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG, November 07 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2016年10月26日發布于:<a href="">Fitch Affirms Cathay No. 2 at 'A(twn)'; Outlook Stable 惠譽評級已確認國泰二號不動產投資信託基金(國泰二號)的國內長期評級為‘A(twn)’,國內短期評級為‘F1(twn)’,評級展望穩定。 關鍵評級驅動因素 穩定的資產表現:自2008年以來,國泰二號一直保持著高於5%的穩定的租金收益率(租金收益/投資地產的賬面價值)。自2010年起,平均租用率一直在95%以上,20 16年上半年的平均租用率為97.9%。在經濟衰退的低迷期內,平均租用率水平良好,2008年為92%,2009年為87%。強勁的租用率和穩定的租金水平生成了充足的 流動性,這也體現在過去十年內高於80%的穩定的EBITDA利潤率中。 充足的凈現金頭寸:截至2016年上半年,國泰二號沒有未償債務,可用現金達4.73億新台幣。該不動產投資基金有35%的資金槓桿額度可用於未來投資目的。然而迄今為止 ,該基金尚未使用此資金槓桿,並且目前沒有任何需要啟動資金槓桿的投資計劃。但惠譽不排除國泰二號在未來12個月內進行併購的可能性,因為台灣的房地產市值在過去18個月 內增長緩慢。但是,經濟不確定性、對保險公司投資的限制、以及對新資產投資回報率(年租金收入/總資產)的要求一直都使國泰二號對新投資持謹慎態度。 穩健的資產池:國泰二號在台北市有三棟辦公樓,經營歷史悠久(26-36年)。三座辦公樓都位於台北市的老市中心黃金地段。2012至2015年期間,三座辦公樓的市場價 值上升了8.5%(復合年均增長率為2.8%)。2015年,年租金收入由2012年的3.9億新台幣穩步增長至4.04億新台幣(復合年均增長率為1.2%)。儘管我們 認為在未來兩年資產市值的增速會趨緩,但國泰二號的辦公樓位於市中心的地理位置將確保其租金收入和市場價值維持堅挺,並將為其信用狀況提供有力支持。 地產組合規模較小且集中:國泰二號的規模有限,資產價值為132億新台幣(4.2億美元),相比之下相同評級類別的亞洲同業企業的資產規模約為10億至40億美元。較小的 規模以及在台北市的集中度較大程度地限制了評級。 租金增長前景有限:台北市對辦公場所的需求的增長受到疲弱的經濟表現、外資企業停滯的擴張和投資的限制。2018年底前的新供給是在信義區將有一棟高檔辦公樓台北南山廣場 開始運營,但惠譽預計對國泰二號的租金費率影響較小,因為該基金已經與合同將在未來12個月到期的大部分租戶續簽了合同。此外,新建築被分類為A級寫字樓,而國泰二號的三 棟辦公樓均被分類為B/B+,二者所吸引的租戶群體不同。同時,國泰二號的三棟辦公樓周邊成熟的居民區將有助於其租金收益保持堅挺。 關鍵評級假設 對國泰二號的評級研究中惠譽的關鍵評級假設包括: - 2017至2019年期間,租金增長1.2% - 2017至2019年期間,管理費及其他費用增長1% - 2016至2019年期間,租用率為97.5% - 2017至2019年期間,投資地產價值每年增長3% 評級敏感性因素 負面:可能單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面評級行動的未來發展因素包括: - 租金收益率持續降低並低於5% - 租用率持續降低並低於85% - EBITDA利潤率持續減弱並低於60%(2015財年為81.6%) - 重大資產收購 - 產生任何債務 正面:鑒於資產組合規模較小,未來12個月內惠譽不太可能上調其評級。 聯繫人: 首席分析師 Vicki Shen(沈璽) 董事 +852 2263 9918 惠譽國際評級有限公司 香港中環德輔道中68號 萬宜大廈19樓 第二分析師 Vanessa Chan(陳詠詩) 董事 +852 2263 9559 評級委員會主席 Su Aik Lim(林樹毅) 高級董事 +852 2263 9914 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: 詳情參見<a href=""> 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 Applicable Criteria Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 27 Sep 2016) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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