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惠譽維持日月光負向評等觀察
December 5, 2016 / 10:06 AM / a year ago

惠譽維持日月光負向評等觀察

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, December 05 (Fitch) 惠譽國際信用公司確認將日月光半導體製造股份有限公司(日月光)的「BBB」長期外幣發行人違約評等(IDR)、「BBB」優先無擔保評等,及其「A+(twn)」國內長 期評等維持負向評等觀察。惠譽同時將Anstock II Limited 在2017年到期之2.125% 三億美元優先無擔保保證票據約的「BBB」維持負向評等觀察。 在今日的評等行動之前,日月光與矽品精密工業股份有限公司 (矽品) 已於 2016 年 11月 18 日發表聯合聲明,該聲明指出台灣的公平交易委員會已核準日月光與矽品的合併案。雙方有意成立控股公司,該公司將持有日月光與矽品 100% 的股權。 惠譽已於 2015 年 12 月 17 日將日月光的評等列為負向評等觀察,因為日月光提議以現金收購該公司尚未持有的矽品股份。雙方的董事會已於 2016 年 6 月 30 日採行核準合併案的決議。合併協議若未獲履行,將於 2017 年 12 月 31 日失效。此一合併案必須獲得中國與美國反托拉斯主管機關的「無異議」同意,且應獲得雙方股東的許可。 由於雙方在財務、營運與策略上關係密切,合併案計畫若付諸實行,日月光的評等或將取決於控股公司的整體信用狀況。惠譽認為控股公司的整體信用狀況可能遠不如日月光,因而將 日月光列入負面觀察名單。然而,因結合日月光與矽品的基礎,產業控股公司的整體經營風險將可降低,市場佔有率更穩固,有機會集合各項資源,實現成本綜效及相關利益。 待合作計劃確定後,產業控股公司的資本結構,財務狀況及財務政策更加明朗,屆時應可將日月光的評等解除評等觀察狀態。我們可能會確認日月光的評等在現有的水平和調整展望至 穩定、或會調降評等,但調降會限制在一級內。 關鍵評等驅動因素 較弱的財務槓桿比例:我們預料倘若交易發生,且全以債務融資,產業控股公司的合併擬制性經營業務所得資金(FFO)調整後槓桿比例在2017年將可能超過3.0倍(預估日 月光2016年的槓桿比例為2.4倍),相比之下,我們對日月光單獨信用狀況的調降指標為2.0倍。我們預期產業控股公司將需要兩到三年的時間才可降低其財務槓桿比例至低 於2.5倍,去槓桿化的速度將取決於全球半導體產業復甦步伐,產業控股公司的成本和資本支出協同效應的實現及其派息政策。 擬議的交易案將涉及將日月光每1股普通股換發產業控股公司普通股0.5股,及矽品每1股普通股換發現金新台幣51元之對價。整個交易案所需現金或高達1300億新台幣(約 為40億美元),這包括收購日月光未持有之矽品的股份,和從矽品的4億美元尚未行使可換股債券可能轉發而產生的新矽品股份。整個交易案可能通過新的債務提供資金。 更強的市場地位:我們認為擬議的交易案可能對日月光在業務上帶來顯著利益,在外包半導體封裝測試業裡的市佔率可提昇至約29%,有機會集合各項資源迎合快速成長之系統級封 裝業務(SiP)的需求,達到成本綜效及相關利益。但是,當前的客戶可能因有供應商多元化的要求,會選擇減少向日月光採購某些產品,這可能會帶來一些收入的減少。 財務表現比預期佳:惠譽預估日月光自身 2016 年的 EBITDA 約為 540 億至 550 億台幣,或較原先的預期值高出 7% 至 8%,因為封裝測試產品獲利增加,帶來更多助力。至於獲利較少的電子製造服務 (EMS) 部門,2016 年的營收料將因穿戴式 SiP 專案產量下滑而減少 15% 至 19%。 關鍵評等假設 此一合併必須獲得主管機關與股東的許可,然而惠譽對合併後實體所作預測的重要假設包括: - 控股公司將依據日月光與矽品在 2016 年 6 月 30 日所作聯合聲明的條款,在 2017 年順利成立並掛牌上市 - 半導體後段市場將在 2017 年成長約 3% 至 5% - 成本與資本支出綜效將在中期內逐步實現 - 產業控股公司籌組完成後的頭三年大幅降低派息率 評等敏感因素 惠譽待合作計劃確定,產業控股公司的資本結構,財務狀況及財務政策更加明朗後,將日月光的評等解除負向評等觀察狀態。這可能需要六個月或更長的時間,方可有機會出現。最終 評等將取決於在交易完成後產業控股公司的擬制性槓桿比例,其利用派息後的自由現金流去槓桿化的可視性和可持續性,及可能發行新股融資的金額。假設我們在與公司方面商談後, 判斷產業控股公司整體經營風險的降低,足以彌補因槓桿比例走弱所造成之較高財務風險,那麼我們可能會確認日月光當前的評等及調整展望至穩定。 目前沒有正面評等行動的設想。如日月光和矽品之合作計劃無法繼續,惠譽可能會將日月光的評等解除評等觀察狀態,並確認其評等。 流動性 流動性充足:2016年9月底時日月光持有無限制現金380億新台幣、未動用承諾設施1700億新台幣,相比之下,短期債務共490億新台幣,以及整個交易案所需的潛在現 金1300億新台幣,用以籌組產業控股公司去持有日月光及矽品。 動作完整清單 惠譽維持以下評等負向觀察 日月光半導體股份有限公司 - 長期外幣發行人違約評等為「BBB」,維持負向觀察 - 國內長期評等為「A+(twn)」,維持負向觀察 - 外幣優先無擔保評等為「BBB」,維持負向觀察 Anstock II Limited - 2017年到期之 2.125% 三億美元優先無擔保保證票據的為「BBB」,維持負向觀察。 這類證券已獲得日月光無條件且不可撤銷的擔保。 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 Contact: Primary Analyst Nitin Soni Director +65 6796 7235 Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd One Raffles Quay, South Tower #22-11 Singapore 048583 Secondary Analyst Kelvin Ho Director +85 2 2263 9940 Committee Chairperson Steve Durose Managing Director +61 2 8256 0307 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com 編輯附註:惠譽國內評等係依該市場需求或於主權評等相對較低的國家中,提供各受評機構相對信用品質指標。該國國內信用風險最低者,其評等為‘AAA’,該國其餘受評機構或 債券之評等即以此作為相對衡量基準。國內評等主要提供予該國市場之國內投資人參考使用,並加註受評機構所屬國家的專屬標記以茲識別,如‘AAA(twn)’即為台灣之國內 評等。因此,不同國家之國內評等無法跨國比較。 Applicable Criteria Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 27 Sep 2016) here National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 30 Oct 2013) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. 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