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December 12, 2016 / 3:03 AM / a year ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) TAIPEI/SINGAPORE, December 11 (Fitch) 如同多數亞洲金融同業,台灣銀行業面臨來自於低利率以及緩慢經濟成長的挑戰。然而,惠譽認為台灣銀行業的展望穩定,有鑑於損失吸收準備已於近年強化,以及對中國、房地產與 科技業的曝險自2015年以來已降低。在惠譽所評的亞洲市場當中,台灣是僅4個銀行業展望穩定的市場之一,其餘13個市場展望為負向。 惠譽預期台灣銀行業於明年將持續受壓於低利率以及殖利率曲線平坦化;然而,經營環境維持穩健。我們預估,2017及2018年的實質經濟成長率將由2016的估計值1% 緩步上升至1.5%-2%。放款需求與淨利差亦將從低水位呈現小幅增加。整體銀行業2017年的資產報酬率將大致維持穩定在0.6%。 銀行業仍可能透過拓展海外市場和併購 (若機會出現),以尋求較好的收益及盈餘成長。擴張至較不熟悉的海外市場已讓一些台灣銀行業者的風險增加。 然而,台灣銀行業一般而言已降低其高風險之曝險。中國曝險占總系統資產的比重已從2014年底時高峰的7.9%下降至2016上半年底的6.2%,此將有助於降低中國經濟 成長放緩以及去槓桿化對台灣外溢的影響。相較其他市場,中國曝險分別占香港及新加坡銀行業資產的28%以及12.5%。 房地產市場仍為潛在的風險來源,然而幾項主管機關的調控措施已減緩房貸成長。適切的擔保成數及增加的正常放款提存也緩和了房地產曝險的相關風險。因而,整體銀行業有較好的 能力去支應中度且漸進的房地產價格修正 ─ 此為惠譽的基礎情境假設。最後,對具高度景氣循環的科技產業放款,其占整體銀行業放款的比重已較幾年前明顯下降。我們預期整體銀行業的放款於中期能再分散,此反映製造業的 轉移及於台灣稍弱的資本投資機會。 台灣銀行業的放款損失準備及資本水準已增強。我們預期整體銀行業之第一類資本比率於2018年前將高於11%,且大部分銀行之資本水準及流動性皆能如期符合巴塞爾協定II I 最低要求。資本水準於調整台灣對房貸較高之資本計提後與亞洲區已開發國家之同業相當。槓桿程度亦可望維持低於多數其他亞洲已開發市場。 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 Contact: Jenifer Chou, CFA, FRM Director Financial Institutions +886 2 8175 7605 Fitch Australia Pty Ltd, Taiwan Branch Suite 1306, 13F, 205, Tun Hwa North Road Taipei City, Taiwan Sophia Chen, CFA, CPA Director Financial Institutions +886 2 8175 7604 Dan Martin Senior Analyst Fitch Wire +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email:; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: Additional information is available on Related Research 2017 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Banks here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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