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惠譽:中資銀行面臨資本壓力和結構性風險
December 15, 2016 / 10:45 AM / a year ago

惠譽:中資銀行面臨資本壓力和結構性風險

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2017 Outlook: China Banks here TAIPEI/HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, December 15 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2016年12月5日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1015845">Fitch: China's Banks Face Capital Pressures and Structural Risks 惠譽評級對2017年中國銀行業的行業展望為負面,反映出惠譽認為盈利能力疲軟和信貸增長強勁將使資本水平繼續面臨壓力。居高並持續上升的企業部門槓桿率仍將是中國銀行業 面臨的關鍵風險。 為了減輕企業借款人債務負擔的措施導致中國解決債務問題的進程向後推遲,此類措施包括低利率、貸款展期、債轉股及審慎管控放鬆。只要GDP增長目標的達成是依賴信貸的支持 ,那麼槓桿率就將會繼續升高,特別是企業部門的槓桿率。我們已經上調了對槓桿率增幅的預期,惠譽調整後的社會融資總量/GDP可能在2016年底時達到258%,並在20 17年底時達到274%。 政府當局增加居民貸款的做法可能有助於分散風險。由於住房抵押貸款的貸款價值比較低、家庭部門槓桿率較低和儲蓄率較高,使得居民貸款相比企業貸款更安全。然而,住房抵押貸 款的快速增長推動住宅房產價格急劇上升,並且有可能使企業槓桿率進一步升高,因為企業借款人以房地產作為貸款的抵押品。此外,要求銀行為產能過剩行業中面臨困難的借款人提 供信貸的政策指引也會影響銀行的風險管理和治理。 惠譽預計2017年不良貸款率和關注類貸款比率將繼續升高。銀行盈利能力將繼續低迷並受到壓力,這是因為一年期貸款基準利率可能會再有一次下調,且存款可能進一步轉移至理 財產品。理財產品目前占銀行系統存款的17%,並且是銀行業的資金和流動性風險來源之一。 惠譽預測利潤增長將持平,而風險加權資產會持續雙位數的增長,這代表資本水平仍將面臨壓力。已公布的其他一級資本工具和二級資本工具的發行量不足以支持銀行資產負債表的擴 張速度,而股權融資也將存在困難,因為淨資產收益率下降且中國的中期增長具有不確定性。 惠譽此前的研究預計一次性解決債務問題可能導致7.4萬億 – 13.6萬億的資本缺口,相當於GDP的11% - 20%左右。如果無效信貸比率繼續維持在目前的水平,且沒有額外募集資本,那麼資本缺口可能進一步擴大。 中資銀行的生存力評級範圍為‘bb’至‘b’,反映了惠譽對資本和資產質量的數個重大風險的基本情景假設。除非運營環境變得更為穩定,並反映在放緩的信貸增速和提升的損失 吸收能力上,否則這些風險將會繼續存在。惠譽的穩定評級展望反映出我們對國家支持的預期,而國家支持仍然是中資銀行的發行人違約評級的唯一評級驅動因素。在地方政府債務置 換之外,更多的企業債務最終可能也會轉移至國家的資產負債表上。 本報告《2017年展望:中國銀行業》請參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 或點擊本新聞稿上方鏈接。 聯繫人: Katie Chen(陳冠如) 聯席董事 金融機構評級 +886 2 8175 7614 澳洲商惠譽有限公司台灣分公司 台北敦化北路205號13層1306室 Jonathan Cornish 董事總經理 金融機構評級 +852 2263 9901 Dan Martin 高級分析師 Fitch Wire +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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