June 15, 2009 / 12:31 PM / 11 years ago

OPINION POLLS - Indonesia's presidential election

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is ahead of rivals Jusuf Kalla and Megawati Sukarnoputri in the run-up to presidential elections, and looks set to win in the first round, on July 8, two new polls showed.

Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is seeking re-election this year, waves at supporters during a campaign rally in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara June 14, 2009. REUTERS/Handout

Yudhoyono and his vice presidential candidate, former central bank governor Boediono, are up against two other teams. Current Vice President Kalla is running with former general Wiranto, while former President Megawati is running with ex-general Prabowo Subianto.

A new poll by the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) put Yudhoyono-Boediono in the lead with 52.5 percent, ahead of Megawati-Prabowo with 24.4 percent and Kalla-Wiranto with 20.2 percent, while 2.9 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The survey was conducted in 33 provinces between June 5-9, involved 2,496 respondents, and had a margin of error of +/-1.96 percent, SSS said.

A separate survey, by Reform Institute (RI), showed that the Yudhoyono-Boediono team had support of 62.92 percent, while Megawati-Prabowo had 16.99 percent and Kalla-Wiranto had 11.31 percent. It said 5.36 percent had not registered to vote while

3.41 percent do not intend to vote.

The survey polled 2,519 respondents in 33 provinces between May 25 and June 2, and had a margin of error of 1.96 percent.

Under Indonesia’s election law, if a single candidate fails to win more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off is held between the two leading candidates.

Some analysts have questioned the reliability of some of the polling agencies in Indonesia, saying they may be linked to particular candidates or parties.

To track the candidates’ ratings, Reuters has compiled a table of polls showing support for Yudhoyono-Boediono (SBY-B), Megawati-Prabowo (MS-PS) and Kalla-Wiranto (JK-W).

For each survey, the polling agency and date that the survey was conducted are shown alongside. All numbers show percentage support and are rounded up to one decimal place.

Presidential elections: pct support in opinion polls

SBY-B MS-PS JK-W U D UR

SSS 6/09 52.5 24.4 20.2 2.9 - -

RI 5-6/09 62.9 17 11.3 n/a 3.4 5.4

PKSPSPI 6/09 37.1 31.5 26.6 4.9 - -

LSI^ 5-6/09 63.1 16.4 5.9 14.6 - -

LP3ES 6/09 54.9 9.7 6.8 27 - -

LRI 6/09 33 20.1 29.3 17.6 - -

LSI 5/09 71 16 8 5 - -

LSN 5/09 67.1 11.8 6.4 13 1.6 -

LSI 4-5/09 70 21 3* n/a n/a -

* The survey polled a pairing of Jusuf Kalla and former military chief Endriartono Sutarto

U: undecided

D: do not intend to vote

UR: unregistered voters

Polling agencies:

SSS Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate

RI Reform Institute

PKSPSPI Centre for Analysis of Development of Indonesian Social

Politics

LSI^ Indonesia Circle Survey

LP3ES Institute for Economy and Social Research, Education and

Information

LRI Research Information Agency

LSI Indonesian Survey Institute

LSN National Survey Board

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