September 12, 2012 / 4:27 PM / 7 years ago

POLL-India's sugar exports seen dropping after poor rains

By Ratnajyoti Dutta and Mayank Bhardwaj
    NEW DELHI, Sept 12 (Reuters) - India, the world's second
largest sugar producer, is likely to see its exports of the
sweetener fall sharply in 2012/13 after poor monsoon rains
caused droughts in some areas and cut output, a Reuters poll
suggested on Wednesday.
    The country had an exportable surplus of 4 million tonnes in
2011/12 but the average projection of industry experts for the
next year was around just one million.
    The majority of respondents, taking part in the annual
Kingsman conference, said the government was unlikely to
intervene or stop exports altogether after poor rains hit the
cane crop in the growing areas of western and southern India.
    But the lowest prediction was for an exportable surplus of
just 100,000 tonnes and the highest still saw the current figure
roughly halved to 2.5 million tonnes.
    India has been a net exporter of the sweetener for the last
two seasons as output outstripped domestic demand. After its
last drought in 2009 it had to import, sending prices soaring.
    "Monsoon has been mixed over the cane areas as displayed by
the poor rains in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but they are good
in Uttar Pradesh," said Gurmit Singh Mann, chairman and managing
director of Simbhaoli Sugars.
    The Indian government will release its maiden sugar
production estimates for 2012/13 later this month after the
June-September monsoon retreats from the south Asian country.
    "The million dollar question of sugar exports will depend on
 government policies," said Samir Somaiya, chairman of Godavari
Biorefineries and a former president of the Indian Sugar Mills
Association (ISMA).
    India is estimated to have produced 26 million tonnes in the
current year with an annual domestic consumption of about 22
million tonnes. The median estimate for 2012/13 production was
24 million tonnes.
    Below are results of a Reuters poll from 12 respondents on
likely output and exportable surplus sugar in 2012/13:
   For output    
   Median:                  24.0 million tonnes   
   Mean:                    24.2 million tonnes   
   Lowest:                  23.5 million tonnes  
   Highest:                 25.0 million tonnes   
   For exports   
   Median:                  1.0 million tonnes   
   Mean:                    0.9 million tonnes   
   Lowest:                  0.1 million tonnes  
   Highest:                 2.5 million tonnes
 ------------------- ----------------------------
  Respondents       Output    Exportable Surplus
                       (In million tonnes)
 Kingsman          24.7                 1.0
 ED&F Man          23.5                 1.5
 Olam              24.0                 1.5
 Sucden            24.0                 2.5
 Czarnikow         24.0                 0.5
 Sugarin Trading   25.0                 0.5
 ISMA              24.0                 1.5
 NFCSF             24.5                 nil
 K S Commodities   24.5                 0.5
 Geojit Comtrade   24.5                 1.0
 Unattributable    23.5                 nil
 NCS Sugars        23.7                 0.1

 (Additional reporting by Rajendra Jadhav in MUMBAI; Editing by
Jo Winterbottom and Andrew Heavens)
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below