July 13, 2020 / 7:06 AM / 21 days ago

POLL-Indonesia's export decline seen moderating in June

* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=IDTRD%3DECI poll data

* June exports seen at -12.26% y/y, vs May’s -28.95%

* June imports seen at -18.70% y/y, vs May’s -42.2%

* June surplus of $1.11 billion forecast, vs May’s $2.09 billion

* Trade data due at 0400 GMT on Wednesday, June 15

JAKARTA, July 13 (Reuters) - Indonesian exports and imports may have shrunk at a slower pace last month, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, as the country and its main trade partners lifted some coronavirus-induced restrictions on economic activity.

However, the trade data is expected to reinforce expectations of poor performance by Southeast Asia’s largest economy in the second quarter due to the impact of the pandemic.

The country’s central bank is due to review monetary policy on Thursday, a day after the data is due.

The median forecast from 13 analysts surveyed was for a yearly drop of 12.26% in shipments from the resource-rich country in June, compared with May’s 28.95% fall.

Aldian Taloputra, a Jakarta-based economist with Standard Chartered who forecast a 2.4% annual growth for June exports, said the improvement was due to a low base effect as there were long domestic holidays at the start of June 2019.

He also listed “likely improved global demand” with major trading partners reporting higher purchasing managers’ index and bigger overseas coal sales as his main reasons.

The pace of fall in imports may have also moderated to 18.70% last month, compared with 42.2% plunge in May, according to the poll.

Indonesia began lifting movement curbs in early June.

The country’s trade surplus likely shrank to $1.11 billion in June from $2.09 billion a month prior, the median analysis showed. (Polling by Nilufar Rizki in Jakarta, Shaloo Shrivastava in Bengaluru; Additional reporting and writing by Tabita Diela, Editing by Gayatri Suroyo and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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