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UPDATE 1-Malaysia Oct palm oil stocks at 3-year low on export strength, tight output

    * Rise in Oct exports smaller than expected
    * Market bearish on sharp fall in Nov 1-10 shipments -
broker
    * Slowing exports to India will further hurt sentiment -
analysts 

 (Adds quotes, details, and table)
    By Mei Mei Chu
    KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil
inventories in October slumped to their lowest in more than
three years, down 8.6% on-month, on lower production and as
seasonal buying from key importer India lifted exports,
according to an industry regulator on Tuesday. 
    Inventories in the world's second-largest producer of palm
oil stumbled to 1.57 million tonnes, their lowest since June
2017, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.              
    Crude palm oil production contracted 7.8% on-month to 1.72
million tonnes, its lowest since May, MPOB said, hampered by wet
weather conditions and labour shortage.               
    "Domestic consumption has also gone down due to
pandemic-related demand destruction," said Anilkumar Bagani,
research head of Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.
    Meanwhile, palm oil exports rose less than expected, ticking
up 3.8% to 1.67 million tonnes and up for a second month, MPOB
said.            
    The market will soon shift focus to November export figures,
said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based
brokerage Pelindung Bestari.
    Cargo surveyors have flagged that shipments from Malaysia
during Nov. 1-10 fell between 17% and 19% from the same period
last month.
    MPOB data has already been priced in, but if clubbed with
this month's low shipments, it gives a bearish perspective for
the palm oil market, said Bagani.
    Shipments to top buyer India in November will ease after the
festive season and may further hurt palm oil prospects, analysts
said.
    "As production is seen declining until December, the concern
is on the current import margins for crude and refined palm oil
in India and China, as well as domestic consumption," said
Marcello Cultrera, institutional sales manager at Phillip
Futures in Kuala Lumpur.
    Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board
figures and Reuters estimates for October (volumes in tonnes)
: 
    
             Oct 2020    Oct 2020 poll   Sept 2020*    Oct 2019
  Output    1,724,420      1,765,436      1,869,255   1,795,841
 Stocks     1,573,450      1,557,000      1,722,007   2,352,279
 Exports    1,673,998      1,700,000      1,612,155   1,641,973
 Imports      45,398         50,000        48,273       85,034
    *indicates revised figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board  
    

 (Reporting by Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and
Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
  
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