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RPT-POLL-Long won positions at 2-yr high; more bullish on Philippine peso
November 9, 2012 / 12:04 AM / in 5 years

RPT-POLL-Long won positions at 2-yr high; more bullish on Philippine peso

(Repeats story issued late on Thursday)
    * Bullish bets on won at largest since Oct 2010
    * Philippine peso, Taiwan dlr optimism highest since Sept
    * Sentiment on rupee turns bearish

    By Sumanta Dey and Jongwoo Cheon
    BANGALORE/SINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Investors piled up
bullish bets on the South Korean won to the highest level in
more than two years and increased long positions in the
Philippine peso to their largest in two months during the past
two weeks, a Reuters poll showed.
    Long positions in the won nearly grew by half, to
their largest since October 2010, according to the survey of 12
currency strategists conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
    The South Korean currency hit a 14-month high against the
dollar on Wednesday on demand from offshore funds and domestic
    The won has also been driven highest by expectations of
further foreign inflows as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains
ultra-easy monetary policy.
    In addition, while foreign exchange authorities have been
spotted slowing down the won's appreciation, dealers and
analysts do not expect them to weaken the currency.
    Optimism on the Philippine peso increased to the
highest since mid-September after Moody's Investors Service
upgraded the country's sovereign rating in late October.
    Bullish bets on the Taiwan dollar also rose to
their largest in nearly two months on inflows from foreign
financial institutions and exporters' demand.
    But long positions in most other emerging Asian currencies
were slightly reduced on worries about a looming fiscal crisis
in the United States.
    With the U.S. presidential election out of the way, the
focus has shifted to the "fiscal cliff" of nearly $600 billion
worth of spending cuts and tax increases set for early 2013,
which investors fear could push the world's top economy back
into recession, dealing the sluggish global economy another
    Sentiment on the Indian rupee turned bearish once
again after some signs of optimism in the last two months.
    The rupee has been supported after New Delhi announced a
slew of reforms in September to revive the economy and attract
foreign capital.
    The Reuters survey focused on what analysts believe are the
current market positions in nine Asian emerging market
currencies: Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore
dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar,
Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and
Thai baht.
    The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3.
    A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
    The findings of the survey are as follow
(positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
 8-Nov   -0.75 -1.47 -0.63  0.72 -0.60  0.16 -0.38 -1.12 -0.34
 25-Oct  -0.86 -1.05 -0.65  0.89  0.08 -0.18 -0.45 -0.85 -0.44
 11-Oct  -0.79 -0.57 -0.49  1.07 -0.21 -0.34 -0.18 -0.49 -0.12
 27-Sept -0.63 -0.79 -0.73  0.67 -0.52 -0.89 -0.35 -0.59 -0.12
 13-Sept -0.59 -0.83 -1.03  0.17 -0.82 -0.25 -1.00 -1.13 -0.73
 30-Aug   0.07 -0.42 -0.05  0.70 -0.15  0.08 -0.44 -0.20 -0.04
 16-Aug  -0.01 -0.69 -0.61  0.52  0.21  0.34 -0.30 -0.48 -0.06
 (Editing by Kim Coghill)

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