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FOREX-Euro off to shaky start in subdued market, dollar holds strong
December 21, 2014 / 11:23 PM / 3 years ago

FOREX-Euro off to shaky start in subdued market, dollar holds strong

* Euro on the defensive, ECB easing still a threat

* ECB Coene says bank should start buying govt bonds

* Markets calmer after wild week

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The euro probed fresh two-year lows early on Monday in a subdued start to a holiday-shortened week, extending a multi-month trend of weakness against the dollar that many traders say will remain intact in the new year.

Speculation is high that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to expand its asset-buying program to include sovereign debt in 2015, at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to do the opposite and lift interest rates.

The common currency has fallen about 11 percent so far this year. It last traded at $1.2221, having touched $1.2220 early in the session, a low not seen since August 2012.

The euro slipped to 146.17 yen, holding well off a six-year high of 149.79 set early in the month.

ECB governing council member Luc Coene said in a newspaper interview on Saturday that the bank should start buying government bonds to tackle poor investor confidence and low inflation in the euro zone.

His comments came as Vice President Vitor Constancio reiterated that the bank would, in early 2015, assess the effectiveness of measures it had already taken.

Constancio said the ECB must act if inflation was too low to maintain its credibility and would need to use channels it had not touched before.

“We think extremely low euro area December inflation will support our call for further ECB easing through the announcement of European government bond purchases at its 22 January meeting,” analysts at Barclay wrote in a note to clients.

That would provide a catalyst for further euro/dollar depreciation next year, they said, adding the recent break lower has opened up targets around 1.2100 and 1.2040.

With the euro on the defensive, the dollar index held within striking distance of a near nine-year peak of 89.645 set on Friday.

Against the yen, the greenback bought 119.55, climbing back towards a 7-1/2 year high of 121.86 and away from a 115.56 trough plumbed last week.

The Australian dollar was becalmed at $0.8142, having slumped to a 4-1/2 year low of $0.8107 last week.

The lacklustre start was in sharp contrast to the wild swings in risk appetite last week sparked in part by a currency meltdown in Russia and persistent weakness in oil prices.

Reassuring words from the Fed on Wednesday, which said it would not raise interest rates in the next couple of meetings, have since restored some semblance of calm.

Traders, many of whom have already closed their books for the year, said thin market conditions could lead to further choppy action in the next few weeks. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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