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GRAINS-Soy, corn tumble after USDA hikes U.S. yield forecasts
August 12, 2015 / 6:13 PM / 2 years ago

GRAINS-Soy, corn tumble after USDA hikes U.S. yield forecasts

* USDA's surprise hikes in U.S. corn, soy yields stun trade
    * CBOT corn and soybeans briefly fall by daily limits
    * China currency devaluation adds pressure for soybeans
    * Wheat also down after USDA raises US, world stocks view

 (New throughout; updates prices after USDA reports, adds
comments, changes byline, changes dateline from previous
    By Julie Ingwersen
    CHICAGO, Aug 12 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures plunged
roughly 6 percent and both corn and soybeans briefly fell their
respective daily limits on Wednesday after the U.S. Department
of Agriculture surprised traders by raising its estimates of
domestic corn and soybean crops in a monthly report.
    Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected the USDA to lower
its yield and production forecasts for both crops following
excessive rains in spring and early summer.
    Instead, the government pegged the U.S. corn yield at 168.8
bushels per acre (bpa), up from 166.8 previously and the second
highest on record, if realized. The USDA projected the soybean
yield at 46.9 bpa, up from 46.0 previously. 
    "A shocker, pure and simple; corn and bean yields were
outside of the bell curve of expectations," said Charlie
Sernatinger, an analyst with ED&F Man Capital.
    At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 12:45 p.m. CDT (1745
GMT), new-crop November soybeans were down 58 cents at
$9.13-1/4 per bushel after dipping to $9.01-1/2, down the
contract's daily 70-cent limit.
    New-crop CBOT December corn was down 18-1/4 cents at
$3.69-1/4 a bushel after hitting $3.57-1/2, a life-of-contract
low that was down the product's 30-cent limit.
    Wheat followed the weaker trend after USDA raised its
projections of U.S. and world 2015/16 wheat ending stocks. CBOT
September wheat was down 12 cents at $4.95-1/4 a bushel.
    CBOT soybeans came under pressure ahead of the USDA reports
on news that China again allowed its currency to lose value,
creating worry that Chinese soybean imports could be reduced.
    The currency moves were only the latest challenge for U.S.
soy exporters already facing their slowest sales pace in seven
years as huge South American supplies and a strong dollar have
been crimping demand for U.S. shipments for months.
    Underscoring the trend, the USDA on Wednesday lowered its
U.S. soybean export forecast for 2015/16 by 50 million bushels.
    "I don't think that is the last reduction we are going to
see there. The United States is not the player in the global
soybean market that we used to be," said Karl Setzer, market
analyst with the MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa.
    CBOT prices as of 12:51 p.m. CDT (1751 GMT): 
                                  Net     Pct  Volume
                Name     Last  change  change        
 CBOT wheat     Wc1    495.50  -11.75    -2.3   80501
 CBOT corn      Cc2    369.25  -18.25    -4.7  352046
 CBOT soybeans  Sc3    915.25  -56.25    -5.8  243476
 CBOT meal      SMc2   326.80  -14.90    -4.3   27021
 CBOT soyoil    BOc2    29.11   -1.05    -3.5   28162
    CBOT wheat, corn and soybeans in cents per bushel, soymeal
in dollars per short ton and soyoil in cents per lb.

 (Additional reporting by Michael Hogan and Naveen Thukral;
Editing by Marguerita Choy)

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