August 2, 2018 / 1:10 AM / 14 days ago

GRAINS-U.S. soybeans fall for 2nd on China trade war fears

U.S. soybeans fell on Thursday to extend two-day losses to
nearly 2.5 percent as fears of an escalation in a trade war
between the United States and China weighed on prices.
         
    FUNDAMENTALS  
    * The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of
Trade were down 0.5 percent to $8.97 a bushel by 0040 GMT,
having closed down 1.9 percent on Wednesday.
    * The most active corn futures were up 0.2 percent at
$3.80-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 1.8 percent in the
previous session.
    * The most active wheat futures were up 0.6 percent
for a fourth session in a row at $5.61-1/2 a bushel, having
closed up 0.8 percent on Wednesday. 
    * The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to
propose a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports,
instead of a 10 percent tariff.
    * An intensified trade war could affect sales of U.S.
soybeans to China, which imported around $12 billion of the 
oilseed last year.
    * In Germany, the European Union's No. 2 grain producer, the
2018 grains harvest will slump about 20 percent on the year to
around 36 million tonnes, after crops suffered massive damage
from drought and a heat wave, according to German farmers
association DBV.
         
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The U.S. dollar clung to gains against a basket of peers
on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates
unchanged but characterized the economy as strong, keeping the
central bank on track to increase borrowing costs in September.
  
    * Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Wednesday as a surprise
increase in U.S. crude stockpiles fed concerns about global
oversupply, while investors worried that trade tensions could
hit energy demand.  
    * The S&P 500 and Dow slipped on Wednesday as gains in Apple
shares were offset by a drop in energy and industrial companies,
while the U.S. Federal Reserve remained on course for an
expected interest rate hike in September.  
    
    DATA/EVENT AHEAD (GMT)
0900  Euro zone        Producer prices                   Jun
1100  Bank of England announces interest rate decision 
1230  U.S.             Weekly jobless claims
1345  U.S.             ISM-New York index                Jul
1400  U.S.             Factory orders                    Jun
       
 Grains prices at  0040 GMT
 Contract      Last  Change    Pct chg   Two-day chg   MA 30  RSI
 CBOT wheat  561.50    3.25     +0.58%        +1.40%  508.69   77
 CBOT corn   380.25    0.75     +0.20%        -1.62%  369.11   62
 CBOT soy    897.00   -4.75     -0.53%        -2.39%  876.17   64
 CBOT rice    11.88   $0.00     +0.00%        -0.67%  $11.94   38
 WTI crude    67.93   $0.27     +0.40%        -1.21%  $70.36   43
 Currencies                                                      
 Euro/dlr    $1.166  $0.000     +0.03%        -0.25%             
 USD/AUD     0.7403   0.000     +0.00%        -0.31%             
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 
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